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A poster named Micah on Bluesky has written, “The China tariffs were a large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy, and the bullet is still in the air.”

By this, he is referring to the consequences of China banning the export of rare metals used in components like microprocessors. Apparently, this has already impacted trans-Pacific shipping and will be affecting US domestic freight traffic in a few weeks, per “Freight Alley.”

“ Many truckers I've spoken with don't realize how quickly container volumes have collapsed. Starting in May, port freight out of California will be almost eliminated. It’s going to be a bloodbath in dray, followed by intermodal, and then a collapse in I-20 and I-40 trucking.”

“May 2020 had 51 shipments with blank sailings. Over 80 so far in April 2025. COVID will look like good times.”

To refresh, here are the two regional manufacturing reports for April so far:

And here is the latest (March) for residential construction:

And here is the one report on April services so far, from the NY Fed:

These last three graphs are not expressions of sentiment, they are reports about hard data. 

Still no significant negative effects on consumer spending through last week:

And we saw on Wednesday that there was a lot of front-running by consumers, especially buying cars, in March.

And we also saw yesterday that there has been no uptick in layoffs.

That’s what it looks like this week. 

Stay tuned.

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