Initial jobless claims rose 2,000 last week to 205,000, while the four-week average declined -1,500 to 212,000. With the usual one-week delay, continuing claims declined by -1,000 to 1.865 million:

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No Christmas layoffs to speak of this year!

On the more important for forecasting purposes YoY basis, initial claims are down -3.3%, the four-week average up by 0.1%, and continuing claims higher by 16.5%:

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Needless to say, this forecast continued expansion in the months ahead. There had been some notion that higher continuing claims meant a recession was imminent, but as usual, they have followed initial claims lower with a delay. Their current YoY increase is the lowest since the beginning of April.

Finally, our usual comparison with the Sahm Rule, because initial claims lead the unemployment rate, indicates that unemployment is likely to peak this month or in the next several months and then drift back lower towards 3.6% or so:

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Good news for the holiday season!

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