Image source: Pixabay

From BEA:

Source: BEA.

Nominal personal income rose in all states.

Source: BEA.

However, what we care about is real personal income. I deflate using (nationwide) Chained CPI inflation (2.71% q/q AR), and calculate Q4 q/q AR growth.

Figure 1: Real personal income growth in 2023Q4, annualized. Source: BEA, BLS, and author’s calculations.

Seven states exhibit negative growth in real personal income: Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arkansas and Hawaii.

Coincident indices through January paint a different picture from that derived from GDP or real personal income.

Source: Philadelphia Fed. 

Here’s a time series of the diffusion index for the 3 month growth rate of the Coincident Index.

Figure 1: Diffusion index for 3 month growth rate of coincident indices. Source: Philadelphia Fed, March 2024.

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