WTI Price Forecast: Bulls Seem Hesitant Below $89.50 Amid Middle East Risks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and currently trades around the $89.30-$89.35 region, up over 1.0% for the day. The black liquid, however, remains confined within a multi-day-old range, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful recovery from a one-month low, touched on Tuesday.

A further escalation of tensions in the Middle East keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor supporting crude oil prices. The Pentagon instructed US Central Command (CENTCOM) several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran as US President Donald Trump weighs a specific date for launching strikes. US and Israeli sources said that it could happen before the US midterm elections and possibly the Israeli elections a week earlier.

Meanwhile, Iran has intensified attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, intensifying fighting between the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia acts as a tailwind for the commodity. Adding to this, an incoming storm in the Gulf Coast region threatens key US energy production and refining infrastructure, which contributes to a positive tone around crude oil prices. However, easing supply concerns hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets and cap any meaningful upside for the black liquid.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices keep a capped tone below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 50, hinting at only modest bullish momentum that is not yet strong enough to overcome nearby overhead supply. This suggests that the 200-period EMA at $89.89 might continue to act as an immediate resistance.

This is followed by a more significant barrier at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $93.95, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias on the four-hour horizon. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $88.82, ahead of a deeper structural floor at the 50.0% retracement near $84.67, with further Fibonacci cushions at $80.52, $74.61 and $67.08 if selling pressure accelerates.