WTI crude oil has broken below the lower support of a symmetrical triangle on the short-term chart, a bearish development that signals a potential extension of the broader slide.
Price has since been consolidating just under the broken triangle floor near the $70.24 level, which now acts as overhead resistance. The current price action looks like a classic retest of the breakdown zone, and if sellers defend this area, crude oil could be poised to push meaningfully lower toward the Fibonacci extension targets below.
The Fibonacci extension tool highlights the key downside levels to watch. The 38.2% Fib sits at $69.29, followed by the 50% level at $68.99. A deeper slide could reach the 61.8% Fib at $68.70 or even the 76.4% level at $68.33, with the full measured move pointing toward the swing low around $67.74.
On the moving average front, the 100 SMA (blue) is below the 200 SMA (red) on this time frame, confirming that the path of least resistance is to the downside and that the broader bearish trend is likely to gain traction. Both indicators are sloping lower and appear to be adding to the resistance overhead, reinforcing the case for sellers.
Stochastic has bounced from the oversold zone and is creeping back toward the midline, suggesting a mild corrective bounce is underway. However, the oscillator has yet to signal a decisive bullish reversal, so this uptick could simply be the retest fuel before selling pressure resumes.
RSI is similarly hovering around the 45 area without much conviction, leaving room for another leg lower before reaching oversold territory.
A failure to reclaim $70.24 would keep the bearish outlook intact, opening the door for a slide toward the lower Fibonacci levels.
WTI crude oil appears to be holding out for further geopolitical developments, though downside pressure remains while US-Iran talks are progressing amid a ceasefire.
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