WTI crude oil has been on a steady climb since the start of the month, with the rising lows connected by an ascending trend line that has held firm throughout the rally. Price recently surged well above this trend line, tagging a high near $104.93 before losing steam and pulling back from that peak.
The Fibonacci retracement tool drawn from the $95.56 low to the $104.93 high highlights where buyers could step back in to defend the climb. The 38.2% Fib lines up at $101.35, close to where price is currently consolidating, while the 50% level sits at $100.25.
A deeper correction could reach the 61.8% Fib at $99.14, which is closer to the ascending trend line and could be the line in the sand for the pullback.
If any of these Fib levels hold as a floor, WTI crude oil could resume its climb toward the $104.93 swing high or higher. A break below the trend line and the 100% Fib at $95.56, on the other hand, could open the door to a larger reversal.
The 100 SMA remains above the 200 SMA, confirming that the path of least resistance is still to the upside, and the widening gap between the two indicators reflects strengthening bullish momentum. Price is also holding above both moving averages, which could reinforce their role as dynamic support on dips.
Stochastic has turned lower from the overbought region, reflecting some exhaustion among buyers after the sharp advance, and has room to slide before reaching oversold territory, suggesting the correction could still have room to run.
RSI is also easing off its highs but remains in the upper half of its range, indicating that buyers still have some control even as the oscillator digests the recent gains.
Overall, a shallow pullback to the Fib cluster near $100.25 to $101.35 could offer fresh entry points for bulls looking to ride the ascending trend line back toward new highs.
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