Nothing really to add from the weekend, but the one chart that is leaving me confused is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Consumer sentiment is in the toilet, really in the toilet - no surprise really given tariffs and general Administration f*ckisms - but the market has been pushing new highs rather than pivoting to new lows as has happened in the past.
The two big declines in consumer sentiment because of y2k and Covid had two very different market responses; y2K ended in new lows in March 2009, while the current decline has delivered new highs. What this means for the next rally will be interesting. On the optimistic front, every recovery in consumer sentiment has enjoyed solid gains in the market.
What this next means for Consumer Sentiment and markets is up for grabs. Unemployment is on the steady rise and this will likely be accelerated by AI related job losses, that in itself, could deliver new market highs. It will be an odd mix and one that will play out over the coming years, not months or weeks.
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