US stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% on Tuesday, the Nasdaq rose around 0.45% and the Dow added 0.5%. Today, the main test for the rally will be the September FOMC minutes, with the 10-year Treasury yield back near 5.3%.
3 Takeaways
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93.
Technology and semiconductor stocks remain the main drivers of the rally.
Investors are awaiting the FOMC minutes for clues on how strongly policymakers support an October pause.
Wall Street continues to reach new highs despite elevated bond yields and oil prices near $100.
Six of the Magnificent Seven stocks gained on Tuesday, while semiconductor shares also advanced. Investors are increasingly shifting their attention toward expectations for a strong third-quarter earnings season.
Momentum has slowed slightly on Wednesday morning. S&P 500 futures are up around 0.1%, Nasdaq futures are roughly flat and Dow futures are marginally lower. The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to around 5.3%.
Macroeconomics and rates
The main event today is the release of the minutes from the Fed’s 15–16 September meeting.
Following the weak NFP report, markets have reduced the probability of another rate hike in October to around 20%, although a December move remains widely priced in.
For equities, the key question is how broadly Fed officials continue to support further tightening. If inflation concerns remain widespread within the committee, Treasury yields could move higher again and put renewed pressure on expensive growth stocks.
Corporate focus
AI and the approaching earnings season remain the main corporate themes.
Marvell Technology, AMD and Constellation Energy were among Tuesday’s stronger performers. Investors remain willing to pay premium valuations for technology growth, but the sustainability of the rally is increasingly dependent on bond yields.
Technical outlook
The S&P 500 has established itself above 7,800 and reached a fresh record high.
The next resistance area is around 7,850–7,900. Initial support is located at 7,800, followed by 7,750.
As long as the index remains above 7,800, the short-term structure continues to favour buyers.
FAQ
Why does the market keep reaching new highs?
The rally is being supported by AI-related stocks and expectations for strong corporate earnings, while the probability of an October Fed rate hike has fallen sharply.
What matters most today?
The FOMC minutes and the reaction in the 10-year Treasury yield.
What is the main risk?
Another move higher in Treasury yields combined with renewed gains in oil prices.
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