Brent Holds Near $100 As Supply Recovers

Brent is trading around $100.3 per barrel on Tuesday after falling almost 2% in the previous session. Rising Middle East supply and the G7 decision to release 100 million barrels from reserves have reduced fears of a physical shortage, but fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi targets are preventing the geopolitical risk premium from disappearing completely.

3 Takeaways

• Brent is holding just above the psychological $100 level.

• In September, Gulf oil flows recovered to around 81% of pre-war levels.

• Fresh attacks on Saudi facilities are limiting further downside.

The main narrative in the oil market is changing. A few weeks ago, investors were focused on the risk of a sharp decline in physical supply, but September showed that producers were able to adapt their logistics.

Crude exports from Gulf countries recovered to around 16.3 million barrels per day, or roughly 91% of pre-war levels. Saudi exports saw particularly strong improvement.

Additional pressure comes from the G7 decision to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products from emergency reserves.

Supply and demand

However, the market has not fully normalised.

Exports of refined products recovered much less than crude, reaching only around 60% of previous levels. This means shortages in diesel and jet fuel persist, while shipping and insurance costs remain elevated.

At the same time, the Houthis have claimed fresh attacks on Saudi targets, including an Aramco refining facility. There is no confirmed major damage so far, but the news is a reminder of how quickly the supply picture can deteriorate.

Macroeconomic factors

A weaker US labour market has reduced the probability of a Fed rate hike in October, which is mildly supportive for commodities.

For Brent, however, actual supply availability matters more at the moment. As long as exports continue to recover and strategic reserves enter the market, sellers have more room to keep prices near $100 despite persistent geopolitical tensions.

Technical outlook

$100 remains the key support level.

A sustained break below it would open the way toward $98–99, followed by $97.

Initial resistance is located near $102, followed by $104–105.

As long as Brent remains in the $100–102 area, the market is effectively balancing improving supply against the risk of renewed escalation.

FAQ

Why is Brent not falling below $100 despite rising exports?

Because risks to infrastructure, logistics and refined product supply remain elevated.

Have supplies fully recovered?

No. Crude exports have recovered much more strongly than refined product shipments.

Which levels are key?

Support is at $100 and $98–99. Resistance is at $102 and $104–105.