View From The Hill: May-6-2016

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Commentary

As expected, the much awaited Employment Situation report failed to meet expectations. Although the market swooned at the open, it showed resiliency as the SP-500 (SPY) ventured below its 50-day moving average before rallying early in the session to close above it and in the upper end of its trading range. Still, even this was not enough to keep it from finishing in negative territory for the week.

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	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M change	215,000	208,000	200,000	175,000 to 245,000	160,000
Unemployment Rate – Level	5.0 %		4.9 %	4.8 % to 5.0 %	5.0 %
Private Payrolls – M/M change	195,000	184,000	195,000	165,000 to 235,000	171,000
Participation Rate – level	63.0 %				62.8 %
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M change	0.3 %	0.2 %	0.3 %	0.2 % to 0.4 %	0.3 %
Av Workweek – All Employees	34.4 hrs		34.5 hrs	34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs	34.5 hrs

Today’s economic data will most likely hamstring the Fed from raising rates this summer. Coming upon a seasonally slow period in the markets, it will want to take more time to assess if future economic data confirms if today’s employment report was only an aberration or the beginning of new trend.

No further comments….