View From The Hill: December-4-2015

Discombobulated Markets!

Thursday and Friday’s combined sessions were almost akin to a slow motion flash crash minus the gut wrenching downward price spirals. The extreme volatility in the major currency markets was also unprecedented. As previously stated, the reaction to Mario Draghi’s ECB monetary policy announcement was irrational and overdone.However, it took investors a day to reach a similar conclusion for themselves on Friday. As a result, most of the major equity indexes were able to finish the week in slightly positive/neutral territory. Exceptions to this were small-cap and transportation stocks.

Real estate assets delivered a strong performance on Friday, but the same could not be said for their weekly timeframe. The Home Construction Index barely changed for the week while the Real Estate Index, more representative of REITs, lagged well behind the residential market.

Crude Oil distinguished itself as the only rational market. It did exactly what it was supposed to do, which is decline significantly lower in price as the EIA’s latest energy report and OPEC’s minutes respectively confirmed that North American nor OPEC producers are showing any signs of tamping down production. Don’t expect any significant price changes without any significantly fundamental changes which restore equilibrium to the current supply-demand imbalance in the energy markets.

Then again, not all markets concluded the week in a rational manner. Gold, a non-interest bearing asset, was the top performer followed by 10-year treasury rates coming in a close second. These two assets are naturally polarized markets.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index lagged and took a senseless beating from the EUR/USD in lieu of a hawkish Yellen vs. a dovish Draghi. The only logical explanation that suffices for now is that Gold is oversold and the Dollar is overbought with both overdue for a price correction. Instead of a continuation pattern next week, I would expect both to retrace their gains and losses unless some solid fundamental news emerges to sustain their current market direction.

In closing, the entire trading week can be summed up in two words: Discombobulated Markets!

Performance Summary

*Trends: ST = short-term; MT = Intermediate-term; LT = long-term

Daily

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Weekly

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Market Condition

So the tug of war continues between bulls and bears. Yes, there is plenty of uncertainty in the market, but momentum has reverted to bullish territory. The SP-500 is back on track to challenge resistance at 2100, which has proven to be a point where the bears are most stubborn. For now, let’s be thankful that it has closed above its 22-day moving average and current uptrend. The 2050-2040 remains a key area of support for the benchmark index and bulls have supported it with sufficient buying pressure.

Wishing you a safe and enjoyable weekend from Hillbent…

Daily Chart Technical Analysis

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Volume Radar Alerts

• Vol % = volume percentage greater than average volume
• SIR = short interest ratio or days to cover