Vanguard’s 10-Year Outlook Is Turning More Optimistic

As of June 30, Vanguard updated its 10-year capital market return forecasts. The latest model projects higher returns for Treasuries and corporate bonds, while expected returns for small-cap and global ex-U.S. equities have declined. A large change is in U.S. large-cap stocks, where Vanguard now expects annualized returns of 4.1%–6.1%. Expectations for both U.S. growth and value stocks have also increased, with U.S. equities overall projected to return 4.2%–6.2% annually. While these forecasts should not be used alone to make investment decisions, the latest projections point to a more optimistic outlook for U.S. assets, particularly U.S. value stocks, which Vanguard expects to deliver the strongest returns at 6.4%–8.4% annually over the next decade.

Source: Vanguard Investment Strategy Group

The projections and other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modeled asset class. Simulations are as of June 30, 2026. Results from the model may vary with each use and over time. For more information, please see the Notes section below. 

This graph was produced by Lucas Juery, CFA, CFPⓇ and is not intended to provide financial advice.