From 2024 to 2026, firms’ expectations around AI’s impact on the workforce have become more dynamic and increasingly mixed. In 2026, only 4% of surveyed service firms reported laying off workers due to AI, while 13% said they expected to hire more workers and 15% expected to hire fewer. One of the clearest trends is the growing importance of worker retraining. About 34% of firms said they expect to retrain employees to adapt to AI and other new technologies. Rather than simply replacing workers, AI adoption appears to be increasingly focused on reshaping how existing employees work and the skills they need.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Regional Business Survey; August 2026
This graph was produced by Lucas Juery, CFA, CFPⓇ and is not intended to provide financial advice.
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