USDCHF has been trending steadily higher since mid-May, with the pair’s rising lows connected by an ascending trend line that has held as a reliable floor throughout the rally.
Price surged to a swing high at 0.8138 before pulling back, and the pair is currently in the midst of a corrective dip that could draw in more buyers at key Fibonacci retracement levels.
The 38.2% Fib is located at 0.8051, which could be enough to attract bullish momentum if the pullback extends from current levels. A deeper correction could reach the 50% level at 0.8024, which aligns closely with the ascending trend line and may offer a stronger confluence of support.
The 61.8% Fib at 0.7996 represents the next line in the sand, sitting just above the full measured move at the 100% level of 0.7909, which also coincides with the rising trend line and where the 200 SMA is gradually catching up as dynamic support.
Speaking of moving averages, the 100 SMA (blue) is above the 200 SMA (red) to confirm that the path of least resistance remains to the upside and that the broader bullish trend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse. The gap between the indicators has widened considerably since late May, reflecting strengthening bullish pressure beneath the surface.
Stochastic dipped sharply into the oversold zone before turning higher, signaling a potential return in buying interest. The oscillator is now curling upward, which could be an early indication that sellers are running out of steam.
RSI, meanwhile, is hovering around the midline with room to climb before reaching overbought territory, suggesting buyers could have the upper hand if momentum picks up.
A bounce off any of the Fib levels could put USDCHF back on track toward retesting the 0.81388 swing high or potentially setting fresh highs beyond.
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