US Tariff Levels Now at Emerging Market Levels

The following graph compares average tariff levels across countries.

One can take comfort from the fact US tariff rates are historically low.

I have two observations:

• We live in an era of global value chains so that the value added has been chopped up and split across nations. In this context, a tariff of 10% on final value is a lot more than 10% on value added.
• This shock to global value chains comes on the back of an already stretched logistics network.

The latter point is highlighted by the following graph:

The latter is perhaps a temporary phenomenon, likely to end when the economy goes into recession. However, the former is likely more persistent.

Global value chains have been built up over decades; rejiggering these chains to accommodate tariffs of indefinite duration is sure to be disruptive, possibly inflationary (although that depends on monetary policy).