CRFB Tracks The Administration’s Forecasts So You Don’t Have To

It’s not pretty (CRFB):

Source: CRFB.

Here’s my comparison, against WSJ, SPF, Hassett, from August (w/o MSR forecast):

Figure 1: Reported GDP (bold black), Administration’s FY2027 Budget forecast, aka OMB-Treasury-CEA “Troika” (red squares), WSJ April survey mean (blue), SPF median forecast (pink), Hassett 5% growth in 2027 (teal triangle), . Source: BEA, WSJ April survey, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

The primary deficit forecast (i.e., ex-interest payments) is tracking the February 2026 CBO projection much more so than the CEA’s. Recall the February projection was finalized a couple months earlier than release.

Source: CRFB.