US Goods Exports and Trade Policy Uncertainty

At a minimum, trade policy uncertainty has risen. Whether that has resulted in the stagnation in exports is an open question.

Figure 1: Log ratio goods exports to GDP, both in Ch.2012$ (blue, left scale), and US trade policy categorical index (red, right scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BEA 2018Q3 advance, policyuncertainty.com, NBER, and author’s calculations.