Upstart Q3 Results: Revenue Hit Our Forecast, The Balance Sheet Cut The Outlook

Upstart (UPST) reported Q3 2026 results before the open on November 3: revenue of $370.5M, 1.6% above the $364.8M consensus of 13 analysts. Our preview, forecast $370.4M from the loan volume Upstart had already published.

The same release cut the 2026 outlook to about $1.35B of revenue and about $260M of adjusted EBITDA, from about $1.4B and $294M. Against the first nine months, that leaves about $307M of revenue for Q4, 17% less than Q3 and well below the $382.3M consensus.

The right total, for the wrong reasons

Volume was never in doubt: the July, August and September releases added up to exactly the $4,117.8M the quarter reported. The two lines under it missed by almost the same amount in opposite directions. Fees came to 8.84% of originations against our 8.39%, mostly because servicing, loan sale and other fees reached $80.9M against our $68.7M. The net interest and fair value line fell to $6.5M after $37.2M of fair value and other adjustments, including $26.9M of unrealized losses and charge-offs on loans Upstart holds.

We had put that line at $25.0M because the Upstart Macro Index (UMI), the company's gauge of how the economy is affecting losses, read flat in the releases published during the quarter. On the call, CEO Paul Gu said it averaged 1.50 in Q3, up from 1.41 in Q2.

Adjusted EBITDA beat our number by $7.8M even with revenue matched, because more of the revenue came from fees: contribution profit was a record $218.0M, a 60% margin, against our 56%.

Why the outlook fell

Gu put the cut on the economy and on the loans Upstart holds on its own balance sheet, not on new lending. The February guide assumed the UMI would go no higher than 1.5 and that rates would be flat or lower; since then the UMI has risen from 1.39 to 1.53 and the two-year Treasury yield by more than 115 basis points.

"An increase in UMI causes a significant reduction in fair values and net interest income. The impact to total revenue and profit from this is actually larger than the impact from reducing new originations."

Paul Gu, co-founder and CEO, Q3 2026 earnings call

The guide puts fee revenue at about $1.32B for the year. Nine months brought $989.1M of fees and $54.3M from net interest and fair value, so Q4 implies about $330.9M of fees, 9% below Q3, and about -$24.3M from net interest and fair value, a line that has been positive every quarter since Q2 2025. October originations, published with the results, were $48.1M per origination day, 6.8% below the Q3 pace.

What we got wrong

Our Q4 revenue forecast was $376.5M, against the roughly $306.6M the new guide implies. Our full-year adjusted EBITDA of $283.3M already sat below the old ~$294M target; the new target of about $260M leaves about $53.3M for Q4.

The full follow-up has the charts, the bridge from our EBITDA forecast to the result, and more from the call.

Data: Upstart's 8-K, 10-Q and earnings call, processed by Equibles.