Two Trades To Watch: GBP/USD, Oil

GBP/USD rises despite PM Boris Johnson facing a vote of no confidence. Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia hikes prices.

Photo by Colin Watts on Unsplash 

GBP/USD rises despite PM Boris Johnson facing a vote of no confidence. Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia hikes prices.
 

GBP/USD rises despite PM Boris Johnson facing a vote of no confidence

GBP/USD lost 1% last week amid concerns over the health of the UK economy and expectations that the Fed would move faster to hike rates.

Today the pound is edging higher despite Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing a vote of no confidence this evening.

Confidence in Boris Johnson has fallen dramatically since the party gate scandal, with Conservative MP’s saying that they have lost faith in their leader.

Over 54 letters of no confidence have been submitted for a vote of no confidence.

There is no high impacting UK or US data due to be released today. US CPI data is due on Friday.
 

Where next for GBP/USD?

After rebounding off 1.2155, GBP/USD rose above the 20 sma before running into resistance at 1.2660 and easing lower.

The pair trades below a multi-month falling trendline and is caught between its 20 sma on the lower side and 1.2660 on the upper side. The RSI is neutral at 50.

A breakout trade would see sellers looking for a break below the 20 sma at 1.2470, opening the door to support at 1.2410 the April low, and 1.2330 the May 19 low.

On the flip side, buyers will be looking for a move over 1.2660, the falling trend line resistance, and the May high ahead of 1.27 at the 50 sma.

(Click on image to enlarge)

gbpusd chart

Oil prices rise as Saudi Arabia hikes prices

Oil prices are on the rise, adding to gains from last week after Saudi Arabia raised crude oil prices for July in a move that highlights tightness in the oil market despite OPEC+ increasing output by more than expected.

Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price by $2.10 from June to $6.50 for its flagship light crude oil to Asia. This is the highest level since May.

Demand remains strong as China re-opens and as the US driving season ramps up.
 

Where next for WTI crude oil?

Oil trades above its rising trend line support and above its 20 & 50 sma. The price ran into resistance at $120 and has eased back slightly. The RSI is supportive of further upside.

Buyers need to break above $120 in order to head for 125.40, the March 9 high.

On the downside, support can be seen at 116.40, the March 3 high, with a breakthrough here opening the door to 114.00, the May 17 high.

It would take a move below 110.50, the June low, to create a lower low.

(Click on image to enlarge)

oil chart

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