Donald Trump keeps telling us that in his make-believe world the United States has the world’s hottest economy. But that’s not what the data from the real world say.
China’s economy was already one-third larger than the US economy when Trump took office. However, the gap has increased substantially over the last year and three quarters. China’s economy is growing at roughly a 4.5 percent annual rate, while the US economy has grown at roughly a 2.3 percent annual rate. (These data are taken from the I.M.F. World Economic Outlook Data Portal and include projections for the second half of 2026.)
As a result, since Trump took office, China’s economy (including Hong Kong) has grown by more than $3.43 trillion, while the US economy has grown by $1.24 trillion.
The fact that China has a bigger economy and the gap is growing need not be a problem if we have a stable international system. However, if the United States imagines that it is not bound by international law or norms, not having the biggest economy in the world could be a problem. The rest of us have to live in the real world, not Donald Trump’s imaginary one.
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