Today's Trading Plan: America Is Rabidly Bullish

SPX finished lower for the first time after five straight green days. Futures following Friday's close sunk on the failed coup attempt in Turkey. All those losses were erased with the opening print on Sunday night.

Technical Outlook:

  • SPX finished lower for the first time after five straight green days.
  • Futures following Friday's close sunk on the failed coup attempt in Turkey. All those losses were erased with the opening print on Sunday night. market euphoria
  • 5-day moving average still holding strong on the current market rally. 
  • At this point, the market could really benefit from some consolidation, in order to avoid a sharp pullback. 
  • SPY volume increased for a second straight day, and came in at slightly above average. 
  • SPX 30 minute chart may be starting to see some consolidation on the 30 minute chart. 
  • VIX continues to trade lower, and move below key support at 13 - a support level that has held for the better part of two years. 
  • T2108 (% of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average) is starting to flat line a bit at 78-79% over the past few days. 
  • Oil continues to bounce around over the past 7 trading sessions. Most noticeable on the USO chart. 
  • Advancing stocks on a daily basis, compared to declining stocks have not been as strong over the past 2-3 trading sessions. 
  • I could easily see a pullback to the 2120 level which was the breakout area for this market, in the coming weeks, without ruining the upside potential of the market going forward. 
  • At this point, and with the election ahead, I'd expect the market to keep rallying higher. I don't expect there to be a rate hike between now and the election. To do so would impact the market and thereby the election. I don't think the Fed wants that, particularly since Trump has indicated that he would replace Yellen. 
  • There is a great deal of bullishness to this market right now despite the prevalent amount of worry. It has been over two years since the market has actually seen a legitimate rally and so it wouldn't be surprising to see this market continue its current trend higher as shorts are forced to face the new reality of the market. 
  • Market is assuming that rate hikes are pretty much off the table for all of 2016. 

My Trades:

  • Sold CNI on Friday at $62.45 for a $4.0% profit. 
  • Covered RCL on Friday at $69.71 for a 3.9% profit.
  • Sold NFLX on Friday at $98.37 for a 2.4% profit.
  • Sold USO on Friday at 10.96 for a 1.4% profit.  
  • Added one new long position to the portfolio on Friday. 
  • May add 1-2 new swing-trades to the portfolio today. 
  • Currently 20% Long / 80% Cash

Chart for SPX:

SP 500 Market Analysis 7-18-16

STOCKS IN THIS ARTICLE

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