Three Things To Know About The Q4 Earnings Season

We can say with a fair amount of confidence that the Q4 earnings season has turned out to be a good one, with decent momentum on the revenues side and earnings growth on track to turn positive.

We share below the three main takeaways from the results thus far. Please note that through Friday, February 7th, we have seen Q4 results from 323 S&P 500 members or 64.6% of the index’s total membership.

First, momentum on the revenues side: For the 323 index members that have reported already, total earnings and revenues are up +0.3% and +4%, respectively. The proportion of these companies beating EPS and revenue estimates is 72.1% and 67.8%, respectively.

The comparison charts below put the earnings and revenue growth rates and the EPS and revenue beats percentages in a historical context.

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And here are the Q4 EPS and revenue beats percentages.

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It is possible to focus only on the revenue performance in the above comparison charts, but we will make it even easier for you by just showing how the Q4 top-line performance stacks up relative to the first three quarters of 2019.

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As you can see here, a much bigger proportion of companies are beating top-line estimates, with the EPS beats percentage actually tracking below historical periods. The revenues growth rate doesn’t show the same level momentum, but it has nevertheless help fairly well.

Second, earnings growth on track to turn positive in Q4: As we saw earlier, earnings for the 323 index members that have reported already are up +0.3% from the same period last year. For the quarter as a whole, combining the results that have come out with estimates for the still-to-come companies, Q4 earnings are expected to be up +0.6% on a year-over-year basis.

This is the first time that the blended Q4 earnings growth rate has turned positive this earnings season and would follow the -1.7% decline in S&P 500 earnings in the preceding period (2019 Q3). Please note that the anemic earnings growth pace in 2019 is primarily because of tough comparisons to the 2018 numbers that were boosted by the tax cut legislation. ‘Normal’ growth resumes in the current period (2020 Q1) and accelerates into the back half of the year and beyond. 

Third, current period estimates coming down, with the Coronavirus adding to the typical negative revision that would take place any way. We got off to a good start with respect to estimate revisions for 2020 Q1, but that has clearly reversed in recent days, as the chart below shows.

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It is totally normal for current-period estimates to be coming down as companies release their quarterly results and the magnitude of negative revisions to Q1 estimates still compares favorably to historical periods. But the additional factor this time around is the Coronavirus outbreak that has clear negative earnings implications, as many companies like Starbucks (SBUX - Free Report), Disney (DIS - Free Report) and others have publicly acknowledged.

But the full extent of the virus outbreak will only become clearer over time. We don’t know at this stage whether the outbreak’s negative impact will be a one-quarter phenomenon or it will seep into the following periods as well.