30-Year Long Bond Weekly Chart
Ascending Triangle Formation
StockCharts: An ascending triangle is a bullish continuation chart pattern characterized by a flat, horizontal resistance line connecting swing highs and a rising, diagonal trendline connecting higher lows. It signals increasing buying pressure and potential accumulation, with a high probability (often ~63% or more) of an upside breakout, especially when forming during an established uptrend.
In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout.
Ascending triangle patterns are generally reliable indicators of a bullish trend, especially when formed in an ongoing uptrend and confirmed with high trading volume. However, like all trading patterns, they’re not foolproof and should be used alongside other technical analysis tools for best results.
That’s the technical picture. What’s the fundamental picture?
Fundamental Picture
More Near-Term Inflation – Higher gasoline, food, diesel, fertilizer etc. prices
More Military Spending – Certain
Bigger Deficit Spending – Certain
The next few month-over-month and year-over year CPI and PCE reports are certain to be a disaster.
Labor Markets – Weakening
Tariff – Uncertainty – Trump seeks ways to avoid the recent Supreme Court Decision
War – Uncertainty but inflationary for as long as it lasts
Consumers opinions definitely souring over war and the economy
Rate cuts priced out
Questions of the Day
Q: Are the CPI and PCE inflation reports already priced in?
A: I don’t know and nobody else does either. But it seems unlikely at the moment.
Q: Is it possible labor market weakness and demand destruction in point 5 enough to overcome points 1-4?
A: It’s possible, but that also seems unlikely at the moment. War added a new wrinkle to the question.
I had already been wrestling with with technical picture since January. The war in Iran will boost points 1-3.
The next few year-over-year inflation reports were already certain to be bad. Month-over-month war-related issues will make matter much worse.
The question is no longer how bad the next few inflation reports will be, but whether of not the bond market ignores it.
We also do not know when the war in Iran will be over or how much more energy infrastructure is blown to smithereens before that happens.
Related Posts
January 14, 2026: The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures
The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.
January 21, 2026: Expect a Big Divergence This Year Between CPI and PCE Inflation
Rent and Healthcare go different ways in 2026. Plus there are huge timing issues.
February 2, 2026: The Fed Has Two Huge Problems Starting Now, Acyclical Inflation and Jobs
The Fed is not in a good spot.
March 11, 2026: Year-Over-Year CPI Inflation Will Worsen for at Least Three Months
This is an easy forecast. And it does not even include gasoline prices.
March 12, 2026: Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Measure
A Bloomberg article comments on something I have been discussing for months.
Despite those posts, it is yet to be seen if long bond yields break out to the upside.
Technically, that would be the expectation. But it has not happened yet, and perhaps it won’t.
Regardless, Trump campaigned on a message to bring down inflation. That is a certain failure.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.