The GDPNow Final Estimate For 2026 Q2 GDP Is 1.5 Percent

The GDPNow estimate is 1.5 percent vs the Econoday consensus of 2.3 percent.

GDPNow Key Measures

The difference between the base forecast and real final sales is change in private inventories (CIPI) which nets to zero over time.

Contributions to GDP

Real final sales at 2.0 percent is the bottom line estimate for the economy.

Some prefer to look at real final private domestic sales. That’s a much better 3.4 percent.

The pessimists will point to the top line estimate of 1.5 percent.

I tend to follow Real Final Sales.

The Fed watches private domestic sales. If so, that’s a fairly strong number and no reason to delay hikes if they want to.

However, these are estimates.

FOMC Fed Decision Wednesday, GDP Not Until Thursday

The official GDP release by the BEA is Thursday. But the Fed interest rate decision is tomorrow.

CME Fedwatch posts a 30.5 percent chance of a hike tomorrow, with a 76.6 percent chance of a hike in September. There is no August meeting.

I doubt the Fed hikes tomorrow. I suspect the odds are more like 15 percent than 30 percent.

Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will try hard not to make any forecasts, his press conference statements will set a tone.