The Fed Hikes To 4% As The 10-Year Yield Toys With 5%

The Fed has raised its rate to 3.75-4.00%, its first increase since 2023 and its first move since the cut in December 2025. The rate it controls is the overnight one. Everything further out is set by people buying and selling bonds, and they have been selling. The 10-year yield was above 5% this morning, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year sits above 5.3%. Those are the yields that price mortgages, corporate debt and most of what American companies and households pay to borrow. The vote was 12-0, and the statement left the balance sheet alone, with bank reserves staying ample. The bond market raised long rates weeks ago. The committee got to the overnight rate this afternoon.

The yield fell to just under 4.94% on the release, the low of the day, and reversed inside the same five-minute bar to near 4.97%. It sits near 4.96%, which is where it sat going into 18:00 GMT, so the entire move round-tripped inside five minutes. That is about 0.05 of a point below the day's high just above 5.00%, made earlier in the session and given back steadily since. The five-minute momentum gauge reads near 27, close to the bottom of its range, where it has been for most of the last hour.