Tesla (TSLA) reports second-quarter earnings after the close on Wednesday, July 22. The stock walks into that print already bruised. Shares trade near $379, down about 22% from the 52-week high of $498.83. Deliveries already hit the tape at 480,126 vehicles for the quarter, up 25% year over year and the strongest total since late 2025. That beat was supposed to clear the runway. It did not. The market wants margins, energy storage, and a robotaxi story that still sounds like science fiction to half the Street.
Then there is the price target that refuses to die.
Wells Fargo keeps an Underweight rating and a $130 price target, nudged up from $125. From today's level that target implies a drawdown on the order of 65% to 67%. One side of the tape says Tesla is a software-defined autonomy company temporarily wearing a car manufacturer's clothes. The other side says you are paying software multiples for a car company that still lives and dies by average selling prices and automotive gross margin.
Tonight, one of those stories takes a punch.
The Setup Is Ugly on Purpose
Consensus sits near $0.54 in EPS on roughly $26.3 billion of revenue, per compiled Street estimates heading into the print. The range is wide. Low estimates dig toward the low $0.30s. High estimates climb toward the mid $0.70s. That dispersion is the market admitting it does not know how much price cutting, mix shift, and regulatory credit noise still sits inside the quarter.
The delivery number already did the easy work. Volume is not the mystery. Profit per vehicle is. Automotive gross margin excluding credits is the line that will move the stock more than the headline EPS beat-or-miss. Energy storage deployments and any update on unsupervised FSD or robotaxi timelines are the second and third levers. If management leans hard into Optimus or robotaxi without hard operational proof, bulls will cheer and bears will short the speech.
It's kinda like a prize fight where both corners already leaked the punch stats. The crowd still shows up because the judges can score the same round two different ways.
Two Teslas, One Ticker
Bulls will argue the delivery rebound proves demand is not broken, China is stabilizing, and the energy business is becoming a real second engine. They will point at long-term autonomy optionality and say $379 is a gift relative to the 2025 peak near $499. Bears will argue the stock still embeds a future that has not shipped. They will wave the Wells Fargo $130 target around like a warning label and ask why a company that sells cars deserves a multiple that assumes robotaxis arrive on schedule.
Both camps can quote real numbers. That is why the after-hours tape will be violent either way. A clean margin beat with confident second-half commentary can squeeze the underweight crowd in minutes. A margin miss that blames pricing will hand them the microphone.
Hold on. Let me stop here. This is not about whether you "believe in Elon." That is sports-radio garbage. This is about whether the financial statements tonight support the valuation still hanging on the screen.
What Actually Matters After the Call
Ignore the first five minutes of after-hours noise if you can. Watch three things on the call at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. One: automotive gross margin trajectory into the second half. Two: energy storage growth and margins. Three: any dated, operational update on robotaxi or FSD that is not recycled keynote language. Everything else is theater.
If margins held while deliveries jumped, the volume-over-price fear cools. If margins cracked to buy the delivery print, the stock can gap into the mid-$300s in a hurry. And if management gets vague on autonomy timelines while the multiple still prices a breakthrough, the Wells Fargo crowd gets another week of ammunition.
Bottom Line
Tesla (TSLA) sits near $379 heading into July 22 after-the-close earnings, about 22% below its $498.83 high, with Street EPS near $0.54 and Wells Fargo still flashing a $130 Underweight target. Deliveries already printed strong at 480,126. The fight tonight is margins and the future story, not unit counts. This is a binary event overnight for a stock that has already lost a fifth of its value from the peak. Trade the facts on the call. Do not trade the mythology.
You don't have to trust me. Trust the income statement when it hits the wire. The delivery beat already had its moment. Tonight belongs to the margin line.
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