The good news is:
I could not find any.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
NY HL Ratio took a dive into deeply negative territory last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red was calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC HL Ratio did not change much last week and remained in negative territory.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
OTC NL rose a bit last week, but turned downward on Friday.
The current value of 376 is near crash levels.
The next chart is similar to the previous one except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NL turned downward Friday. You would expect the current value of 164 during a bear market.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.
NY NH continued declining while prices rose last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NH also headed downward as prices rose last week.
NY NH continued declining while prices rose last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
OTC NH also headed downward as prices rose last week.
The Positives
Not much to say here. Last week the breadth indicators headed downward while prices were rising.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of November during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week, so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for the coming week has been pretty dull, but a little stronger during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of November.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1966-2 0.18% -0.35% 0.90% -0.11% 0.75% 1.37%
1970-2 -1.11% -0.05% -0.07% -0.51% -0.09% -1.82%
1974-2 0.32% -2.04% -0.58% 0.09% -0.97% -3.18%
1978-2 -1.60% -1.88% 0.51% 0.69% 1.32% -0.96%
1982-2 -1.41% -1.91% 1.24% 0.67% 0.06% -1.35%
Avg -0.72% -1.24% 0.40% 0.17% 0.21% -1.19%
1986-2 -0.42% -1.25% -0.80% 0.68% 0.70% -1.09%
1990-2 2.78% 0.40% 1.13% -0.68% -1.02% 2.62%
1994-2 0.79% 0.11% 0.08% -0.49% -0.15% 0.34%
1998-2 0.74% 0.91% 1.00% 1.18% 0.44% 4.27%
2002-2 -2.95% 2.30% 0.87% 3.69% -0.03% 3.88%
Avg 0.19% 0.50% 0.46% 0.88% -0.01% 2.01%
2006-2 0.70% 1.01% 0.50% 0.26% -0.13% 2.33%
2010-2 -0.17% -1.75% 0.25% 1.55% 0.15% 0.02%
2014-2 -0.37% 0.67% -0.57% 0.56% 0.24% 0.53%
2018-2 -2.78% 0.00% -0.90% 1.72% -0.15% -2.11%
2022-2 -1.12% 1.45% -1.54% -0.35% 0.01% -1.55%
Avg -0.75% 0.35% -0.45% 0.75% 0.02% -0.16%
OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022
Avg -0.43% -0.17% 0.13% 0.60% 0.07% 0.22%
Win% 40% 50% 60% 67% 53% 53%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025
Avg -0.17% 0.16% -0.11% 0.04% 0.01% -0.06%
Win% 44% 55% 52% 56% 54% 57%
SPX PY2
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1954-2 -0.21% 0.30% 0.18% -0.56% 0.03% -0.27%
1958-2 0.28% -0.21% 0.13% 0.02% -0.96% -0.73%
1962-2 1.38% -0.22% 1.18% -0.32% 0.32% 2.34%
1966-2 -0.70% 0.39% 0.83% -0.69% -0.66% -0.82%
1970-2 -0.16% 0.12% -0.66% 0.14% 0.98% 0.43%
1974-2 0.32% -1.97% -0.43% -0.40% -1.57% -4.05%
1978-2 -1.73% -0.69% 0.24% 1.08% 0.76% -0.34%
1982-2 -1.79% -1.17% 1.85% 0.30% -0.95% -1.77%
Avg -0.81% -0.66% 0.37% 0.09% -0.29% -1.31%
1986-2 -0.53% -2.64% 0.37% 1.85% 1.57% 0.62%
1990-2 1.83% -0.57% 0.86% -1.05% 0.03% 1.10%
1994-2 0.80% -0.22% 0.13% -0.44% -0.45% -0.19%
1998-2 0.91% 0.30% 0.46% 0.71% 0.95% 3.32%
2002-2 -2.07% 0.77% -0.05% 2.46% 0.61% 1.73%
Avg 0.19% -0.47% 0.35% 0.70% 0.54% 1.32%
2006-2 0.25% 0.64% 0.24% 0.23% 0.10% 1.46%
2010-2 -0.12% -1.62% 0.02% 1.54% 0.25% 0.07%
2014-2 0.07% 0.51% -0.15% 0.20% 0.52% 1.16%
2018-2 -1.97% -0.15% -0.76% 1.06% 0.22% -1.59%
2022-2 -0.89% 0.87% -0.83% -0.31% 0.48% -0.68%
Avg -0.53% 0.05% -0.29% 0.54% 0.32% 0.08%
SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022
Avg -0.24% -0.31% 0.20% 0.32% 0.12% 0.10%
Win% 44% 44% 67% 61% 72% 50%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025
Avg -0.04% 0.03% -0.06% -0.05% 0.12% 0.00%
Win% 46% 47% 59% 52% 61% 52%
Conclusion
Last week prices rose nicely while the breadth indicators fell.
The market is getting interesting.
The strongest sectors last week were Utilities (for the 7th week in a row) and Energy (up from the bottom last week) while the weakest were Precious Metals (down from the top last week) and Basic Materials.
I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday November 20 than they were on Friday November 13.
Comments
Log in or sign up to join the conversation.