Technical Market Report For June 6, 2026

The good news is:

• All of the major indices closed at all time highs last Tuesday and/or Thursday last week.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NL turned downward last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL also turned downward last week.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis, at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows). 

OTC HL Ratio turned downward finishing the week at a barely positive 52%. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also turned downward finishing the week at 55%.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  

NY NH failed to confirm the new SPX high by a wide margin. 

The Positives

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NASDAQ data.  

OTC NH confirmed the new index high; suggesting higher highs ahead..  

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of June during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored. 

Seasonality for the coming week has been negative by all measures.

Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of June

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2   0.25%  -0.52%  -0.63%   0.00%   0.51%  -0.39%

 1970-2  -2.19%  -0.49%   1.17%   0.13%  -1.12%  -2.50%

 1974-2   0.25%  -0.69%  -0.29%   0.17%  -0.58%  -1.14%

 1978-2   0.88%   0.61%   0.20%   0.72%   0.34%   2.76%

 1982-2  -0.56%  -0.32%  -1.35%   0.25%   1.27%  -0.71%

 Avg     -0.27%  -0.28%  -0.18%   0.32%   0.09%  -0.39%

 1986-2  -1.38%  -0.48%   0.66%   0.28%   0.77%  -0.15%

 1990-2   0.75%  -0.21%   0.08%  -0.19%  -0.69%  -0.27%

 1994-2   0.14%  -0.56%  -1.29%  -0.12%   0.74%  -1.09%

 1998-2   0.27%   0.73%  -1.53%  -1.33%  -0.27%  -2.12%

 2002-2  -0.31%  -2.19%   1.47%  -1.47%   0.53%  -1.97%

 Avg     -0.10%  -0.54%  -0.12%  -0.57%   0.21%  -1.12%

 2006-2  -2.24%  -0.32%  -0.51%  -0.30%  -0.48%  -3.85%

 2010-2  -2.04%  -0.15%  -0.54%   2.77%   1.12%   1.16%

 2014-2   0.34%   0.04%  -0.14%  -0.79%   0.30%  -0.24%

 2018-2   0.69%   0.41%   0.67%  -0.70%   0.14%   1.21%

 2022-2   0.40%   0.94%  -0.73%  -2.75%  -3.52%  -5.65%

 Avg     -0.57%   0.19%  -0.25%  -0.35%  -0.49%  -1.47%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022 

 Avg     -0.32%  -0.21%  -0.18%  -0.24%  -0.06%  -1.00%

 Win%       60%     33%     40%     43%     60%     20%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

 Avg     -0.11%  -0.10%   0.03%  -0.04%  -0.03%  -0.25%

 Win%       54%     37%     52%     65%     59%     40%

SPX PY2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2  -0.38%  -2.24%  -0.67%   0.67%   0.85%  -1.77%

 1958-2  -0.16%  -0.20%   0.02%   0.58%   0.60%   0.85%

 1962-2  -3.55%   0.52%   1.42%   0.02%   0.09%  -1.50%

 1966-2  -0.74%  -0.69%   0.12%   0.67%   1.10%   0.45%

 1970-2   0.16%  -0.05%  -1.01%  -1.36%  -0.32%  -2.59%

 1974-2   0.59%  -0.88%  -0.24%   0.30%  -1.13%  -1.35%

 1978-2   1.84%   0.37%  -0.20%   0.09%  -0.28%   1.83%

 1982-2   0.03%  -0.44%  -0.58%   0.57%   1.49%   1.05%

 Avg      0.38%  -0.34%  -0.38%   0.05%   0.17%  -0.12%

 1986-2  -2.32%  -0.16%   0.65%   0.15%   1.76%   0.07%

 1990-2   1.17%  -0.21%  -0.46%  -0.50%  -1.22%  -1.22%

 1994-2  -0.27%  -0.15%  -0.25%   0.18%   0.18%  -0.32%

 1998-2   0.16%   0.24%  -0.55%  -1.59%   0.38%  -1.35%

 2002-2   0.31%  -1.66%   0.66%  -1.05%  -0.23%  -1.97%

 Avg     -0.19%  -0.39%   0.01%  -0.56%   0.17%  -0.96%

 2006-2  -1.78%  -0.11%  -0.61%   0.14%  -0.45%  -2.81%

 2010-2  -1.35%   1.10%  -0.59%   2.95%   0.44%   2.54%

 2014-2   0.09%  -0.02%  -0.35%  -0.71%   0.31%  -0.68%

 2018-2   0.45%   0.07%   0.86%  -0.07%   0.31%   1.62%

 2022-2   0.31%   0.95%  -1.08%  -2.38%  -2.91%  -5.10%

 Avg     -0.46%   0.40%  -0.36%  -0.01%  -0.46%  -0.89%

SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022 

 Avg     -0.30%  -0.20%  -0.16%  -0.07%   0.05%  -0.68%

 Win%       56%     33%     33%     61%     61%     39%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025

 Avg     -0.16%  -0.04%   0.02%  -0.01%   0.08%  -0.10%

 Win%       48%     47%     46%     59%     58%     47%

Conclusion

The market had a good week last week until Friday.  All of the major indices hit all time highs at some point last week  On Friday everything moved sharply downward, consistent with the average Presidential Cycle pattern.

The strongest sectors last week were Utilities (up from the bottom last week) and Finance while the weakest were Electronics and Precious Metals (down from the top last week.

I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday June 12 than they were Friday June 5.

Last week's positive forecast was a miss.