Technical Market Report For July 18, 2026

The good news is:

The market took a seasonal tumble last week. Seasonality has been stronger next week.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NH rose a bit as the index declined last week, but from a very low level..

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NH arrested its decline while the index fell, but also from a low level.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).

OTC HL Ratio fell below the neutral line last week

The Positives

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio rose as the index fell.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).

NY NL continuing moving upward last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL turned downward as the index fell. This chart is not as robustly positive as the chart above.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of July during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Seasonality for the coming week has been positive by all measures.

Report for the week before the 4th Friday of July.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals

1966-2 0.42% 0.08% -0.10% -0.56% -0.05% -0.20%

Avg 0.42% 0.08% -0.10% -0.56% -0.05% -0.20%

1970-2 0.01% 0.13% 0.46% 0.38% -0.22% 0.76%

1974-2 0.03% 1.39% 0.26% -1.50% -0.93% -0.75%

1978-2 -0.01% 0.16% 0.56% 0.52% 0.56% 1.79%

1982-2 -0.05% 0.44% 0.42% 0.30% 0.03% 1.13%

1986-2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Avg -0.01% 0.53% 0.42% -0.07% -0.14% 0.73%

1990-2 -2.33% -0.47% 0.65% 0.00% -0.64% -2.79%

1994-2 0.17% -0.46% -0.91% 0.32% 0.23% -0.64%

1998-2 0.12% -1.90% -0.79% 2.02% -2.46% -3.01%

2002-2 -2.77% -4.18% 4.98% -3.89% 1.78% -4.08%

2006-2 2.05% 0.58% -0.17% -0.77% 1.93% 3.63%

Avg -0.55% -1.28% 0.75% -0.46% 0.17% -1.38%

2010-2 0.88% 1.10% -1.58% 2.68% 1.05% 4.13%

2014-2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2018-2 0.28% -0.01% 1.17% -1.01% -1.46% -1.04%

2022-2 -0.81% 3.11% 1.58% 1.36% -1.87% 3.37%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022

Avg -0.15% 0.00% 0.50% -0.01% -0.16% 0.18%

Win% 62% 62% 62% 54% 46% 46%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

Avg -0.22% -0.01% 0.16% 0.05% 0.06% 0.04%

Win% 47% 57% 58% 60% 62% 57%

SPX PY2

Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals

1954-2 -0.27% -0.47% 0.64% 0.80% 0.13% 0.83%

1958-2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

1962-2 -0.02% -0.77% 0.18% 0.55% 0.76% 0.69%

1966-2 -0.10% -0.76% -0.95% 0.01% -0.13% -1.93%

1970-2 -0.22% 0.15% 0.35% 0.04% -0.03% 0.30%

1974-2 0.32% 1.00% 0.40% -1.19% -1.88% -1.34%

1978-2 -0.03% 0.74% 0.65% 0.46% 0.46% 2.28%

1982-2 -0.31% 0.73% -0.11% 0.04% -0.27% 0.09%

Avg -0.07% 0.37% 0.07% -0.13% -0.37% -0.12%

1986-2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

1990-2 -1.74% 0.14% 0.37% -0.33% -0.69% -2.27%

1994-2 0.23% -0.30% -0.50% 0.22% 0.11% -0.23%

1998-2 0.57% -1.49% -0.44% 1.57% -1.94% -1.73%

2002-2 -3.29% -2.70% 5.73% -0.56% 1.69% 0.86%

Avg -1.06% -1.09% 1.29% 0.23% -0.21% -0.84%

2006-2 1.66% 0.63% -0.04% -0.41% 1.22% 3.06%

2010-2 0.60% 1.14% -1.28% 2.25% 0.78% 3.49%

2014-2 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

2018-2 0.18% 0.48% 0.91% -0.30% -0.66% 0.61%

2022-2 -0.84% 2.76% 0.59% 0.99% -0.93% 2.57%

Avg 0.40% 1.25% 0.04% 0.63% 0.10% 2.43%

SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022

Avg -0.22% 0.09% 0.43% 0.28% -0.09% 0.49%

Win% 40% 60% 60% 67% 47% 67%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025

Avg -0.16% 0.00% 0.30% 0.14% 0.05% 0.32%

Win% 37% 55% 63% 59% 62% 60%

Interest Rates

Treasury rates at their close last Friday and their changes from last month:

2yr yield 4.183% down from 4.187%

5yr yield 4.289% up from 4.240%

10yr yield 4.550% down from 4.460%

30yr yield 5.072% up from 4.898%

The next chart, made with FastTrack, covers the past month showing a relative comparison of US treasury interest rates. 30 year in red, 10 year in green, 5 year in yellow and 2 year in purple.