Technical Market Report For June 27, 2026

The good news is:

The Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at an all time high last Friday.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NH continues to show narrow leadership.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NH continued falling along with the index.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).

NY NL continued moving downward.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL also moved sharply downward.

The Positives

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis, at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).

OTC HL Ratio finished the week in marginally positive territory.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also finished the week in positive territory.

Seasonality

Next week includes the last 2 trading days of June and the first 2 trading days of July during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Seasonality for the coming week has been mixed.

Report for the last 2 days of June and first 2 days of July.

The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.

The number following the daily return represents the day of the week; 1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

Day2 Day1 Day1 Day2 Totals

1966-2 -1.21% 3 -0.96% 4 -0.10% 5 0.30% 2 -1.98%

1970-2 -1.27% 1 -1.15% 2 -1.30% 3 -0.74% 4 -4.47%

1974-2 -1.84% 4 -1.13% 5 -0.75% 1 -2.10% 2 -5.82%

1978-2 0.38% 4 0.27% 5 -0.12% 1 -0.77% 3 -0.25%

1982-2 -0.32% 2 0.45% 3 -0.41% 4 -0.32% 5 -0.60%

Avg -0.85% -0.51% -0.54% -0.73% -2.62%

1986-2 0.16% 5 0.49% 1 0.52% 2 0.46% 3 1.63%

1990-2 0.76% 4 0.41% 5 -0.05% 1 -0.06% 2 1.06%

1994-2 0.28% 3 0.28% 4 0.13% 5 -0.46% 2 0.22%

1998-2 1.16% 1 0.19% 2 1.05% 3 -1.07% 4 1.32%

2002-2 2.09% 4 0.27% 5 -4.06% 1 -3.28% 2 -4.97%

Avg 0.89% 0.33% -0.49% -0.88% -0.15%

2006-2 2.96% 4 -0.11% 5 0.84% 1 -1.69% 3 2.01%

2010-2 -3.85% 2 -1.21% 3 -0.37% 4 -0.46% 5 -5.89%

2014-2 0.43% 5 0.23% 1 1.14% 2 -0.02% 3 1.79%

2018-2 0.79% 4 0.09% 5 0.76% 1 -0.86% 2 0.78%

2022-2 -0.03% 3 -1.33% 4 0.90% 5 1.75% 2 1.28%

Avg 0.06% -0.47% 0.66% -0.26% -0.01%

OTC summary for PY2 (1966 - 2022

Averages 0.03% -0.21% -0.12% -0.62% -0.93%

% Winners 60% 60% 47% 20% 53%

MDD 7/2/2002 7.20% -- 7/2/2010 5.80% -- 7/2/1974 5.70%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

Averages 0.12% 0.27% 0.18% -0.12% 0.46%

% Winners 63% 63% 65% 52% 67%

MDD 7/2/2002 7.20% -- 7/2/2010 5.80% -- 7/2/1974 5.70%

SPX PY2

Day2 Day1 Day1 Day2 Totals

1930-2 0.45% 6 2.81% 1 -1.08% 2 1.09% 3 3.28%

1934-2 -1.70% 5 0.00% 6 -1.22% 1 -0.31% 2 -3.24%

1938-2 4.18% 3 -1.37% 4 3.03% 5 1.93% 6 7.77%

1942-2 0.36% 1 0.24% 2 -0.84% 3 1.58% 4 1.34%

1946-2 1.55% 4 0.22% 5 0.60% 1 -0.05% 2 2.31%

1950-2 -3.70% 4 1.43% 5 -0.28% 1 0.96% 3 -1.59%

1954-2 0.51% 2 -0.75% 3 0.00% 4 1.30% 5 1.07%

1958-2 0.13% 5 0.76% 1 0.09% 2 0.09% 3 1.07%

1962-2 3.44% 4 0.62% 5 2.03% 1 1.13% 2 7.22%

Avg 0.39% 0.46% 0.49% 0.69% 2.02%

1966-2 -0.95% 3 -0.14% 4 1.03% 5 0.25% 2 0.19%

1970-2 -0.79% 1 -0.23% 2 0.44% 3 -0.16% 4 -0.75%

1974-2 -1.55% 4 -0.36% 5 0.02% 1 -2.00% 2 -3.89%

1978-2 0.18% 4 -0.04% 5 -0.46% 1 -0.86% 3 -1.19%

1982-2 -0.05% 2 -0.54% 3 -0.82% 4 -0.98% 5 -2.39%

Avg -0.63% -0.26% 0.04% -0.75% -1.60%

1986-2 0.35% 5 0.50% 1 0.48% 2 0.26% 3 1.58%

1990-2 0.70% 4 0.11% 5 0.42% 1 0.17% 2 1.41%

1994-2 0.35% 3 -0.75% 4 0.43% 5 0.04% 2 0.07%

1998-2 0.47% 1 -0.41% 2 1.31% 3 -0.19% 4 1.17%

2002-2 1.76% 4 0.00% 5 -2.22% 1 -2.12% 2 -2.58%

Avg 0.72% -0.11% 0.08% -0.37% 0.33%

2006-2 2.16% 4 -0.21% 5 0.79% 1 -0.72% 3 2.01%

2010-2 -3.10% 2 -1.01% 3 -0.32% 4 -0.47% 5 -4.90%

2014-2 0.19% 5 -0.04% 1 0.67% 2 0.07% 3 0.89%

2018-2 0.62% 4 0.08% 5 0.31% 1 -0.49% 2 0.51%

2022-2 -0.07% 3 -0.88% 4 1.06% 5 0.16% 2 0.27%

Avg -0.04% -0.41% 0.50% -0.29% -0.25%

SPX summary for PY2 1930 - 2022

Averages 0.23% 0.00% 0.23% 0.03% 0.48%

% Winners 67% 38% 63% 54% 67%

MDD 7/2/2010 4.84% -- 7/2/2002 4.30% -- 7/2/1974 3.84%

SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2025

Averages 0.14% 0.17% 0.33% 0.17% 0.80%

% Winners 60% 59% 73% 59% 70%

MDD 7/2/2010 4.84% -- 6/30/1931 4.32% -- 7/2/2002 4.30%

July

Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in July has been up 57% of the time with an average gain of 0.9%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the OTC in July has been up 40% of the time with an average loss of (-0.4%). The best July ever for the OTC was 2022 (+12.3%), the worst 2002 (-9.2%).

The average month has 21 trading days. The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change for each of the 1st 11 trading days and each of the last 10. In months when there were more than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle were not counted. In months when there were less than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle of the month were counted twice. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the 1st trading day and at 5 trading day intervals after that. The line is solid on the 11th trading day, the dividing point.

In the chart below, the blue line shows the average daily performance of the OTC in July over all years since 1963, while the black line shows the average during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.

Since 1928 the SPX has been up 61% of the time in July with an average gain of 1.7%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 58% of the time with an average gain of 1.0%. The best July ever for the SPX was 1932 (+37.7%), the worst 1934 (-11.5%).

The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the average daily performance over all years since 1928 for the SPX in July in red and the average daily performance during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, over the same period, in black.

Since 1979 the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 55% of the time in July with an average gain of 0.4%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 36% of the time with an average loss of (-2.5%), helped considerably by a 15.2% loss in 2002. The best July ever for the R2K, 1980 (+11.0%), the worst 2002 (-15.2%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the average daily performance of the R2K, over all years since 1979, in July in magenta and the average daily performance during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Since 1885 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 64% of the time in July with an average gain of 1.3%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 60% of the time in July with an average gain of 1.0%. The best July ever for the DJIA 1932 (+26.7%), the worst 1893 (-15.7%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the average daily performance over all years for the DJIA in July in light grey and the average performance during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle in dark black.

Conclusion

I think the market was manipulated last week. There was near record volume both upside and downside on both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 5% trend of NASDAQ upside volume (OTC UV), in green and downside volume, (OTC DV) in orange. The green line is obscured by the right side border of the chart. I defines the top of the chart while the orange line on the right side defines the bottom of the chart. These are the most extreme positions of both of these indicators ever and it happened on what should have been a sleepy, low volume, late June week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NYSE upside volume (NY UV) is shown in green and down side volume (NY DV) is shown in black. Both volume indicators are at all time records. Suspicious, yes.