Technical Market Report For June 13, 2026

The good news is:

• The Russell 2000 (R2K) closed at an all time high last Friday.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NH continues to show narrow leadership. 

The Positives

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.  

OTC NH followed the index downward after confirming the index high.  

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). 

NY NL turned upward late last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL appears to be turning upward.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis, at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows). 

OTC HL Ratio turned upward after dipping into negative territory for a few days. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also turned upward.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of June during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored. 

Seasonality for the coming week has been modestly negative and weaker during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of June.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2   0.51%   0.31%   0.20%  -0.02%   0.24%   1.24%

 1970-2  -1.41%   0.27%   1.66%   0.83%   1.46%   2.80%

 1974-2  -1.47%  -0.36%  -0.73%  -1.00%  -0.93%  -4.49%

 1978-2  -0.10%  -0.04%   0.22%  -0.26%  -0.40%  -0.58%

 1982-2  -0.81%  -0.56%   0.15%  -0.93%  -0.79%  -2.94%

 Avg     -0.65%  -0.08%   0.30%  -0.28%  -0.09%  -0.79%

 1986-2  -0.26%  -0.57%  -0.26%   0.29%   0.12%  -0.68%

 1990-2   0.42%   0.81%   0.49%  -0.38%   0.10%   1.45%

 1994-2  -0.35%   0.58%  -0.02%  -0.12%  -0.76%  -0.66%

 1998-2  -1.68%   2.17%   1.33%  -0.21%   0.49%   2.10%

 2002-2   3.23%  -0.67%  -2.99%  -2.14%  -1.62%  -4.20%

 Avg      0.27%   0.47%  -0.29%  -0.51%  -0.34%  -0.40%

 2006-2  -2.05%  -0.90%   0.65%   2.79%  -0.66%  -0.17%

 2010-2   0.02%   2.76%   0.00%   0.05%   0.11%   2.95%

 2014-2   0.24%   0.37%   0.59%  -0.08%   0.20%   1.33%

 2018-2   0.19%   0.57%  -0.11%   0.85%  -0.19%   1.32%

 2022-2  -4.68%   0.18%   2.50%  -4.08%   1.43%  -4.65%

 Avg     -1.26%   0.60%   0.73%  -0.09%   0.18%   0.15%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022 

 Avg     -0.55%   0.33%   0.25%  -0.29%  -0.08%  -0.35%

 Win%       40%     60%     67%     33%     53%     47%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

 Avg     -0.14%   0.17%   0.06%  -0.04%  -0.03%   0.02%

 Win%       48%     62%     62%     50%     52%     54%

SPX PY2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2   0.14%   0.73%   0.73%  -0.28%   0.28%   1.60%

 1958-2   0.36%  -0.53%   0.89%  -1.61%   0.54%  -0.36%

 1962-2  -1.08%  -2.56%  -1.49%  -2.11%   2.87%  -4.37%

 1966-2   0.45%   0.28%  -0.39%  -0.30%   0.05%   0.08%

 1970-2   0.23%   2.38%  -0.20%   0.67%   0.71%   3.79%

 1974-2  -1.38%  -0.66%  -0.68%  -0.71%  -0.85%  -4.28%

 1978-2  -0.38%   0.02%  -0.09%  -1.15%  -0.94%  -2.53%

 1982-2  -1.15%  -0.25%  -0.75%  -1.17%  -0.30%  -3.61%

 Avg     -0.45%   0.36%  -0.42%  -0.53%  -0.27%  -1.31%

 1986-2   0.16%  -0.72%   0.26%  -0.38%   1.44%   0.76%

 1990-2   0.81%   1.28%  -0.37%  -0.55%   0.00%   1.18%

 1994-2   0.09%   0.71%  -0.38%   0.29%  -0.75%  -0.04%

 1998-2  -1.98%   0.98%   1.79%  -0.06%  -0.52%   0.21%

 2002-2   2.87%   0.09%  -1.65%  -1.34%  -1.70%  -1.74%

 Avg      0.39%   0.47%  -0.07%  -0.41%  -0.31%   0.07%

 2006-2  -1.27%  -1.03%   0.52%   2.12%  -0.37%  -0.02%

 2010-2  -0.18%   2.35%  -0.06%   0.13%   0.13%   2.37%

 2014-2   0.08%   0.22%   0.77%   0.13%   0.17%   1.37%

 2018-2   0.11%   0.17%  -0.40%   0.25%  -0.10%   0.02%

 2022-2  -3.88%  -0.38%   1.46%  -3.25%   0.22%  -5.83%

 Avg     -1.03%   0.27%   0.46%  -0.12%   0.01%  -0.42%

SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022 

 Avg     -0.33%   0.17%   0.00%  -0.52%   0.05%  -0.63%

 Win%       56%     61%     39%     33%     56%     50%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025

 Avg     -0.07%   0.17%   0.00%  -0.14%  -0.05%  -0.08%

 Win%       59%     58%     46%     49%     54%     55%

Conclusion

The market began the week moving downward and taking the breadth indicators with it.  Wednesday was a down day for the indices, but there were fewer new lows than there had been on Tuesday; pointing to a change in direction for the rest of the week.  New lows continued to decline the rest of the week.  It looks like the rally will resume for a while.

The strongest sectors last week were Utilities and Finance (both for the 2nd week) while the weakest were Internet and Precious Metals (for the 2nd week).

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday June 19 than they were Friday June 12.

Last week's negative forecast was a miss.