Technical Market Report For July 11, 2026

The good news is:

• New lows on both the NYSE and Nasdaq continued to decline last week.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

NY NH with the SPX only 0.5% off its all time high, NY NH continues to show narrowing leadership. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.  

OTC NH is also showing narrowing leadership.  

The Positives

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). 

NY NL continuing moving upward last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL also continued moving upward.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis, at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows). 

OTC HL Ratio tumbled last week, but finished in positive territory.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio also declined last week, but remained in positive territory.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of July during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.

Seasonality for the coming week has been negative by all measures.

Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of July.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2   0.67%  -0.49%  -0.12%  -0.09%   0.87%   0.84%

 1970-2   0.33%  -0.68%  -0.80%   0.24%   0.83%  -0.08%

 1974-2   0.49%  -0.49%   1.51%   0.14%   0.81%   2.46%

 1978-2   0.64%  -0.22%   0.58%   0.77%  -0.12%   1.65%

 1982-2   0.46%   0.30%  -0.08%   0.24%   0.34%   1.25%

 Avg      0.52%  -0.32%   0.22%   0.26%   0.55%   1.22%

 1986-2  -0.42%   0.11%  -0.01%  -0.29%   0.29%  -0.32%

 1990-2   0.25%  -1.09%  -0.79%  -0.58%  -0.63%  -2.84%

 1994-2  -0.09%   0.39%   1.38%   0.31%  -0.03%   1.96%

 1998-2   0.27%  -1.75%  -0.47%  -1.76%  -0.22%  -3.92%

 2002-2   0.66%  -0.53%   1.60%  -2.88%  -2.79%  -3.94%

 Avg      0.13%  -0.57%   0.34%  -1.04%  -0.68%  -1.81%

 2006-2   0.02%   0.27%   1.83%  -1.98%  -0.93%  -0.79%

 2010-2   0.09%   1.99%   0.35%  -0.03%  -3.11%  -0.73%

 2014-2  -0.17%   0.71%   0.40%  -0.04%  -0.50%   0.40%

 2018-2  -0.26%   0.63%  -0.01%  -0.37%  -0.07%  -0.07%

 2022-2  -2.26%  -0.95%  -0.15%   0.03%   1.79%  -1.54%

 Avg     -0.52%   0.53%   0.48%  -0.48%  -0.57%  -0.55%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022 

 Avg      0.05%  -0.12%   0.35%  -0.42%  -0.23%  -0.38%

 Win%       67%     47%     47%     40%     40%     40%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

 Avg     -0.05%  -0.11%  -0.01%  -0.06%  -0.19%  -0.41%

 Win%       60%     40%     50%     55%     41%     41%

SPX PY2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2  -0.07%  -0.33%   0.23%   0.33%  -0.43%  -0.26%

 1958-2   1.22%   0.17%  -0.02%   0.54%   0.69%   2.60%

 1962-2   0.00%  -1.82%  -1.02%   0.39%   0.69%  -1.75%

 1966-2  -0.18%  -0.65%  -0.67%   0.60%   0.30%  -0.60%

 1970-2   0.04%  -0.95%   0.06%   1.26%  -0.23%   0.18%

 1974-2   0.76%  -1.16%   1.07%   0.10%  -0.29%   0.48%

 1978-2   0.20%  -0.93%   1.29%  -0.09%  -0.29%   0.19%

 1982-2   0.68%  -0.11%   0.90%   0.03%   0.54%   2.05%

 Avg      0.30%  -0.76%   0.53%   0.38%   0.01%   0.46%

 1986-2  -0.05%   0.82%   0.21%  -0.30%   0.95%   1.63%

 1990-2   0.45%  -0.39%  -0.90%   0.30%  -1.02%  -1.55%

 1994-2  -0.33%  -0.02%   0.17%   1.04%   0.17%   1.03%

 1998-2  -0.22%  -1.60%  -0.09%  -2.10%   0.10%  -3.91%

 2002-2  -0.38%  -1.84%   0.55%  -2.70%  -3.83%  -8.20%

 Avg     -0.11%  -0.61%  -0.01%  -0.75%  -0.73%  -2.20%

 2006-2  -0.14%   0.19%   1.86%  -0.85%  -0.71%   0.35%

 2010-2   0.07%   1.54%  -0.02%   0.12%  -2.88%  -1.17%

 2014-2  -0.23%   0.50%   0.18%   0.05%  -0.48%   0.01%

 2018-2  -0.10%   0.40%   0.22%  -0.40%  -0.09%   0.02%

 2022-2  -1.15%  -0.92%  -0.45%  -0.30%   1.92%  -0.90%

 Avg     -0.31%   0.34%   0.36%  -0.27%  -0.45%  -0.34%

SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022 

 Avg      0.03%  -0.39%   0.20%  -0.11%  -0.27%  -0.55%

 Win%       41%     33%     61%     61%     44%     56%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2022

 Avg     -0.08%  -0.16%   0.03%  -0.05%  -0.12%  -0.38%

 Win%       51%     38%     54%     54%     47%     41%

Conclusion

The breadth indicators were mixed last week along with the major indices.  

The strongest sectors last week were Energy (up from the bottom for the past 3 weeks) and Internet while the weakest were Basic Materials and Precious Metals.

I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday July 17th than they were on Friday July 10.

Last week the R2K and DJIA were down while the SPX and OTC were up; so I am calling last week's positive forecast a tie..