The good news is:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at an all time high last Friday.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NL moved sharply downward last week.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NL has also moved downward last week.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
OTC HL Ratio continued its dive into negative territory last week.
The Positives
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio held steady while prices fell during the 1st part of the week.
The next chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NH continued moving slowly downward, but remained at a pretty high level.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NH continued moving higher after confirming the all time high for the SPX a week earlier and the DJIA on Friday.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 2nd Friday of February during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Seasonality for the coming week has been modest and mixed.
Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of February.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.
Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1966-2 0.37% 0.18% -0.28% 0.84% -0.10% 1.01%
1970-2 1.46% 0.53% -0.19% 0.61% 0.60% 3.01%
1974-2 -1.34% -0.46% 0.30% 0.08% -0.66% -2.08%
1978-2 0.05% 0.47% 0.42% 0.02% 0.37% 1.32%
1982-2 -1.90% -1.15% 0.25% -0.39% 0.15% -3.04%
Avg -0.27% -0.09% 0.10% 0.23% 0.07% 0.04%
1986-2 0.64% 0.15% 0.39% 0.55% 0.58% 2.32%
1990-2 0.60% -0.17% 0.66% 0.12% 0.36% 1.56%
1994-2 0.25% 0.45% 0.49% -0.40% -0.26% 0.53%
1998-2 -0.24% 1.10% -0.02% 0.33% -0.23% 0.95%
2002-2 -2.91% -0.92% -1.40% -1.69% 2.06% -4.86%
Avg -0.33% 0.12% 0.02% -0.21% 0.50% 0.10%
2006-2 -0.17% -0.61% 0.98% -0.49% 0.27% -0.02%
2010-2 -0.70% 1.17% -0.14% 1.38% 0.28% 1.98%
2014-2 0.54% 1.03% 0.24% 0.94% 0.08% 2.84%
2018-2 -3.76% 2.12% -0.89% -3.88% 1.43% -4.99%
2022-2 -0.58% 1.28% 2.08% -2.10% -2.78% -2.11%
Avg -0.93% 1.00% 0.46% -0.83% -0.14% -0.46%
OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022
Avg -0.51% 0.34% 0.19% -0.27% 0.14% -0.11%
Win% 47% 67% 60% 60% 67% 60%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025
Avg -0.14% 0.08% 0.09% 0.14% 0.02% 0.19%
Win% 39% 60% 57% 65% 61% 59%
SPX PY2
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1954-2 -0.27% -0.23% -0.11% -0.31% 0.23% -0.69%
1958-2 -0.60% -0.89% -0.44% 0.02% 0.95% -0.95%
1962-2 0.10% 0.11% 0.66% 0.23% -0.14% 0.96%
1966-2 0.35% -0.04% 0.55% -0.24% -0.02% 0.59%
1970-2 0.79% -1.05% 0.98% -0.24% -0.22% 0.26%
1974-2 -2.13% -0.31% 0.28% 0.04% -1.04% -3.16%
1978-2 -0.13% 0.93% 0.55% -0.58% -0.24% 0.52%
1982-2 -2.24% -0.83% 0.86% -0.20% -0.04% -2.45%
Avg -0.67% -0.26% 0.64% -0.25% -0.31% -0.85%
1986-2 0.78% -0.15% 0.02% 0.66% 1.09% 2.41%
1990-2 0.28% -0.66% 1.24% -0.24% 0.20% 0.82%
1994-2 0.42% -0.15% 0.36% -0.81% 0.27% 0.08%
1998-2 -0.18% 0.82% 0.10% 0.40% -0.39% 0.75%
2002-2 -2.47% -0.40% -0.60% -0.31% 1.49% -2.30%
Avg -0.23% -0.11% 0.23% -0.06% 0.53% 0.35%
2006-2 0.08% -0.81% 0.87% -0.15% 0.25% 0.24%
2010-2 -0.89% 1.30% -0.22% 0.97% -0.27% 0.89%
2014-2 0.16% 1.11% -0.03% 0.58% 0.48% 2.30%
2018-2 -4.10% 1.74% -0.50% -3.75% 1.49% -5.11%
2022-2 -0.37% 0.84% 1.45% -1.81% -1.90% -1.79%
Avg -1.02% 0.84% 0.31% -0.83% 0.01% -0.69%
SPX summary for PY2 1954 - 2022
Avg -0.58% 0.07% 0.33% -0.32% 0.12% -0.37%
Win% 44% 39% 67% 39% 50% 61%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025
Avg -0.26% 0.00% 0.12% -0.07% 0.07% -0.14%
Win% 38% 55% 56% 44% 56% 58%
Conclusion
Last week was another exciting week as measured by the equities market.
The first 4 days of the week were down followed by a massive rally on Friday.
This is looking like an old time cycle high with the DJIA closing at an all time high unconfirmed by the broader indices.
The strongest sectors last week were Energy (for the 4th week in a row) and Transportation while the weakest were Internet (for the 4th week in a row and Precious Metals (for the 2nd week in a row)..
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday February 13 than they were on Friday February 6.
Last week the DJIA and Russell 2000 (R2K) were up while the SPX and OTC finished the week down so I am calling last week's negative forecast a tie.
More By This Author:
Technical Market Report As Of Jan. 31
Technical Market Report For January 24, 2026
Technical Market Report For January 17, 2026
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