Technical Market Report For February 28, 2026

The good news is:

New lows declined last week.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.

OTC NH slowed its fall last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY NH continued falling.

The Positives

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).

OTC HL Ratio climbed above the neutral line last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio fell a little, but remained at a comfortable level.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).

OTC NL continued moving upward last week.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY NL has been flat, but at a critical level.

Seasonality

Next week includes the first 5 trading days of March during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025. There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

Seasonality for the coming week has been modestly positive by all measures.

Report for the first 5 days of March.

The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.

The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;

1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Totals

1966-2 0.22% 2 -0.54% 3 -0.50% 4 -0.23% 5 -0.72% 1 -1.78%

1970-2 0.48% 1 0.13% 2 0.47% 3 0.06% 4 -0.23% 5 0.90%

1974-2 -0.32% 5 -0.27% 1 0.97% 2 0.43% 3 -0.62% 4 0.20%

1978-2 0.00% 3 0.24% 4 0.24% 5 -0.21% 1 0.28% 2 0.54%

1982-2 0.39% 1 0.01% 2 -1.18% 3 -0.97% 4 -1.32% 5 -3.07%

Avg 0.15% -0.09% 0.00% -0.18% -0.52% -0.64%

1986-2 0.07% 1 0.34% 2 -0.32% 3 0.46% 4 0.20% 5 0.75%

1990-2 0.32% 4 0.89% 5 -0.20% 1 0.51% 2 0.03% 3 1.55%

1994-2 -0.49% 2 -0.66% 3 0.14% 4 0.76% 5 0.57% 1 0.33%

1998-2 -0.67% 1 -0.09% 2 0.15% 3 -2.72% 4 2.43% 5 -0.90%

2002-2 4.11% 5 3.14% 1 0.37% 2 1.29% 3 -0.46% 4 8.46%

Avg 0.67% 0.73% 0.03% 0.06% 0.55% 2.04%

2006-2 1.46% 3 -0.15% 4 -0.37% 5 -0.72% 1 -0.77% 2 -0.55%

2010-2 1.58% 1 0.32% 2 0.00% 3 0.51% 4 1.48% 5 3.89%

2014-2 -0.72% 1 1.75% 2 0.14% 3 -0.13% 4 -0.37% 5 0.67%

2018-2 -1.27% 4 1.07% 5 1.00% 1 0.56% 2 0.33% 3 1.70%

2022-2 -1.59% 2 1.62% 3 -1.56% 4 -1.66% 5 -3.62% 1 -6.81%

Avg -0.11% 0.92% -0.16% -0.29% -0.59% -0.22%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022

Averages 0.24% 0.52% -0.04% -0.14% -0.19% 0.39%

% Winners 53% 67% 53% 53% 47% 67%

MDD 3/7/2022 6.70% -- 3/5/1982 3.43% -- 3/5/1998 3.31%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

Averages 0.28% -0.02% 0.33% -0.29% -0.11% 0.19%

% Winners 63% 49% 67% 50% 48% 60%

MDD 3/7/1980 7.49% -- 3/7/2022 6.70% -- 3/4/2021 6.37%

SPX PY2

Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Totals

1930-2 0.73% 6 -0.38% 1 0.77% 2 -0.76% 3 0.98% 4 1.34%

1934-2 -0.37% 4 3.26% 5 0.00% 6 -0.54% 1 -1.18% 2 1.17%

1938-2 1.06% 2 -0.96% 3 -0.97% 4 -0.98% 5 -0.09% 6 -1.94%

1942-2 -1.40% 1 1.53% 2 -1.05% 3 -1.53% 4 -2.63% 5 -5.06%

1946-2 -0.41% 5 -0.64% 6 -0.06% 1 1.05% 2 -0.46% 3 -0.51%

1950-2 0.12% 3 -0.06% 4 0.35% 5 0.23% 6 -0.06% 1 0.58%

1954-2 0.38% 1 0.27% 2 0.00% 3 0.34% 4 0.42% 5 1.41%

1958-2 0.71% 1 0.53% 2 0.29% 3 1.28% 4 0.17% 5 2.98%

1962-2 0.34% 4 -0.06% 5 -0.21% 1 -0.33% 2 -0.13% 3 -0.39%

Avg 0.23% 0.01% 0.07% 0.52% -0.01% 0.81%

1966-2 -1.27% 2 -1.01% 3 0.36% 4 -0.26% 5 -1.34% 1 -3.52%

1970-2 0.23% 1 0.58% 2 -0.21% 3 -0.04% 4 -0.62% 5 -0.06%

1974-2 -0.72% 5 0.00% 1 1.87% 2 0.68% 3 -1.06% 4 0.77%

1978-2 0.17% 3 0.15% 4 0.15% 5 -0.63% 1 0.53% 2 0.37%

1982-2 0.18% 1 -0.56% 2 -1.56% 3 -0.94% 4 -0.49% 5 -3.37%

Avg -0.28% -0.17% 0.12% -0.24% -0.60% -1.16%

1986-2 -0.66% 1 -0.46% 2 -0.02% 3 0.35% 4 0.20% 5 -0.59%

1990-2 0.26% 4 0.84% 5 -0.54% 1 1.26% 2 -0.29% 3 1.53%

1994-2 -0.58% 2 0.08% 3 -0.39% 4 0.37% 5 0.47% 1 -0.05%

1998-2 -0.15% 1 0.41% 2 -0.45% 3 -1.17% 4 2.00% 5 0.64%

2002-2 2.26% 5 1.95% 1 -0.67% 2 1.45% 3 -0.45% 4 4.55%

Avg 0.23% 0.56% -0.41% 0.45% 0.38% 1.21%

2006-2 0.83% 3 -0.16% 4 -0.15% 5 -0.70% 1 -0.19% 2 -0.37%

2010-2 1.02% 1 0.23% 2 0.04% 3 0.37% 4 1.40% 5 3.07%

2014-2 -0.74% 1 1.53% 2 -0.01% 3 0.17% 4 0.05% 5 1.01%

2018-2 -1.33% 4 0.51% 5 1.10% 1 0.26% 2 -0.05% 3 0.49%

2022-2 -1.55% 2 1.86% 3 -0.53% 4 -0.79% 5 -2.95% 1 -3.95%

Avg -0.36% 0.79% 0.09% -0.14% -0.35% 0.05%

SPX summary for PY2 1930 - 2022

Averages -0.04% 0.39% -0.08% -0.04% -0.24% 0.00%

% Winners 54% 58% 33% 50% 38% 54%

MDD 3/6/1942 5.12% -- 3/7/2022 4.23% -- 3/5/1982 3.50%

SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2025

Averages 0.21% 0.13% 0.26% 0.02% -0.03% 0.56%

% Winners 64% 54% 62% 52% 51% 62%

MDD 3/5/2009 7.15% -- 3/7/1980 5.95% -- 3/6/1942 5.12%

March

Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in March has been up 63% of the time with an average gain of 0.7%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle March has been up 53% time with an average gain of 1.0%. The best March ever for the OTC was 2009 (+10.9%), the worst 1980 (-17.1%).

The average month has 21 trading days. The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change for each of the 1st 11 trading days and each of the last 10. In months when there were more than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle were not counted. In months when there were less than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle of the month were counted twice. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the 1st trading day and at 5 trading day intervals after that. The line is solid on the 11th trading day, the dividing point.

In the chart below the blue line shows the average daily performance of the OTC in March over all years since 1963, while the black line shows the average during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle over the same period.

Since 1928 the SPX has been up 61% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.5%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 63% of the time with an average of 0.3%. The best March ever for the SPX was 1928 (+10.8%) the worst 1938 (-25.0%).

The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the average daily performance over all years since 1928 for the SPX in March in red and the average daily performance during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, over the same period, in black.

Since 1979 the Russell 2000 (R2K) has been up 68% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.6%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 73% of the time with an average gain of 2.5%. The best March ever for the R2K 1979 (+9.7%), the worst 2020 (-21.9%)

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the average daily performance of the R2K, over all years since 1979, in March in magenta and the average daily performance during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle in black.

Since 1885 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been up 60% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.6%. During the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 60% of the time in March with an average loss of -0.1%. The best March for the DJIA 1920 (+12.6%), the worst 1938 (-23.7%)

There is a substantial discrepancy between summaries above and the chart below. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week, so several days in the middle of the month would not be included in the calculations for the chart.

The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the average daily performance over all years for the DJIA in March in grey and the average performance during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle in black.