Technical Market Report For April 4, 2026

The good news is:

• The market had its best week in 2 months.

The Negatives

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.  
OTC NH continued to fall last week.  

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.  

NY NH also continued falling. 

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn, on the Y axis, at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows). 

OTC HL Ratio turned upward, but remained in deeply negative territory. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HL Ratio fell slowly in spite of the rally in prices.

The Positives

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).  

NY NL rose modestly last week following the rally in prices.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL also rose modestly with the rally in prices.

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 prior to the 2nd Friday of April during the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2025 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2025.  There are summaries for both the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week, so that data has been ignored.

Seasonality for the coming week has mixed.

Report for the week before the 2nd Friday of April.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday to 2nd Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 2 (PY2)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1966-2   0.30%   0.20%  -0.33%   0.10%   0.32%   0.59%

 1970-2  -0.27%  -0.23%  -1.39%  -0.40%  -0.31%  -2.60%

 1974-2  -0.41%   1.02%   0.43%   0.20%  -0.65%   0.59%

 1978-2   0.28%  -0.08%   0.40%   1.03%   1.18%   2.80%

 1982-2  -0.14%  -0.07%  -0.19%   0.39%   0.62%   0.61%

 Avg     -0.05%   0.17%  -0.22%   0.26%   0.23%   0.40%

 1986-2  -0.68%   1.14%   0.07%   0.80%   0.46%   1.79%

 1990-2   0.09%  -0.29%  -0.90%  -0.58%  -0.75%  -2.43%

 1994-2  -0.08%  -1.19%  -1.60%  -0.01%   0.09%  -2.79%

 1998-2   0.26%   0.99%   1.10%  -0.27%   0.45%   2.53%

 2002-2   0.89%  -2.42%   1.41%  -2.37%   1.79%  -0.70%

 Avg      0.10%  -0.36%   0.02%  -0.49%   0.41%  -0.32%

 2006-2  -0.64%   1.95%   0.63%  -0.35%  -0.83%   0.74%

 2010-2   0.16%   0.33%   1.58%   0.43%  -1.37%   1.13%

 2014-2  -1.16%   0.81%   1.72%  -3.10%  -1.34%  -3.07%

 2018-2   0.51%   2.06%  -0.35%   1.00%  -0.47%   2.75%

 2022-2   1.90%  -2.26%  -2.22%   0.06%  -1.34%  -3.86%

 Avg      0.15%   0.58%   0.27%  -0.39%  -1.07%  -0.46%

OTC summary for PY2 1966 - 2022 

 Avg      0.07%   0.13%   0.02%  -0.20%  -0.14%  -0.13%

 Win%       53%     53%     53%     53%     47%     60%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2025

 Avg      0.04%   0.00%   0.14%   0.11%  -0.25%   0.04%

 Win%       62%     52%     56%     56%     52%     59%

SPX PY2

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1954-2   0.18%  -0.92%   0.37%   1.00%   0.73%   1.36%

 1958-2   0.62%   1.02%  -0.78%   0.36%   1.09%   2.31%

 1962-2  -0.77%   0.37%  -0.22%  -1.02%   0.28%  -1.37%

 1966-2   0.03%  -0.37%   0.10%   0.36%   0.13%   0.25%

 1970-2  -0.70%  -0.27%  -0.03%   0.05%  -0.33%  -1.29%

 1974-2  -0.08%   1.75%   0.75%   0.45%  -1.09%   1.78%

 1978-2   0.35%  -0.27%  -0.16%   0.97%   2.13%   3.03%

 1982-2  -0.19%  -0.01%  -0.14%   0.45%   0.40%   0.51%

 Avg     -0.12%   0.17%   0.10%   0.45%   0.25%   0.86%

 1986-2  -0.03%   2.14%   0.10%   1.15%  -0.20%   3.16%

 1990-2   0.12%  -0.02%  -1.15%  -0.77%  -0.88%  -2.70%

 1994-2   0.62%  -0.51%  -0.29%   0.03%  -0.04%  -0.20%

 1998-2  -0.09%   0.54%   0.32%  -0.99%   1.31%   1.09%

 2002-2   0.23%  -0.67%   1.13%  -2.37%   0.66%  -1.01%

 Avg      0.17%   0.30%   0.02%  -0.59%   0.17%   0.07%

 2006-2  -0.29%   1.74%   0.17%   0.12%  -0.01%   1.72%

 2010-2   0.18%   0.07%   1.12%   0.08%  -1.61%  -0.17%

 2014-2  -1.08%   0.38%   1.09%  -2.09%  -0.95%  -2.65%

 2018-2   0.33%   1.67%  -0.55%   0.82%  -0.29%   1.99%

 2022-2   0.81%  -1.26%  -0.97%   0.43%  -0.27%  -1.26%

 Avg     -0.01%   0.52%   0.17%  -0.13%  -0.63%  -0.07%

SPX summary for PY@ 1954 - 2022 

 Avg      0.01%   0.30%   0.05%  -0.06%   0.06%   0.37%

 Win%       56%     50%     50%     72%     44%     56%

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2025

 Avg      0.13%   0.09%   0.15%  -0.03%  -0.05%   0.28%

 Win%       58%     56%     53%     55%     52%     56%

Conclusion

Prices had a nice rally and the new low indicators turned modestly upward.

New lows decreased enough to turn the indicators upward, but have not decreased dramatically which would indicate a cycle bottom.

The market is overbought so, at least, a modest decline early next week is likely.

The annual seasonal pattern calls for this rally to continue between now and late April when a cycle top is scheduled. 

The strongest sectors last week were Utilities (for the 2nd week) and Precious Metals while the weakest were Electronics and Energy (down from the top for the past month).

I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday April 10 than they were Thursday April 2.

Last week's negative forecast was a miss.