Switzerland’s Labor Market Demonstrates Resilience

The US equity indices were closed yesterday due to the Labor Day bank holiday.

In Europe, Monday’s session ended near flat levels: Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.33%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished 0.08% lower. European equity markets ended Monday near neutral marks amid a complex intersection of political, monetary, and commodity‑driven factors. Sentiment was additionally pressured by domestic political news from Germany, where the far‑right AfD won regional elections in Saxony‑Anhalt. The event heightened concerns about political fragmentation in the Eurozone and coincided with a jump in German government bond yields. The rise in sovereign yields was driven by expectations of a widening fiscal deficit and inflationary risks stemming from a sharp increase in natural gas prices, while the ECB prepares to announce its second rate hike of the year.

The stability of Switzerland’s labor market, against the backdrop of slowing dynamics in other European economies, underscores the high resilience of the country’s economic model. Unemployment holding at 3.1% alongside a decline in job vacancies indicates a smooth cooling of labor demand without abrupt shocks to employment. This pattern allows the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to maintain ultra‑loose monetary policy at zero, keeping inflation under control despite geopolitical and commodity‑related pressures across Europe.

The surge in Brent crude oil prices to $97.5 per barrel, a six‑week high, reflects deep structural shifts in the energy market and the risk of a prolonged supply deficit. Despite reports of potential diplomatic contacts between Iran and Oman regarding tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz, Washington’s hardline stance and ongoing military clashes in the region leave little chance for a quick restoration of stable flows. More aggressive price rallies are being contained only through large‑scale interventions and the use of government reserves. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen below 290 million barrels – its lowest level since the early 1980s.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 2.12%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed 0.47% higher, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell 0.93%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended Monday up 0.06%.

The offshore yuan continues to hold strong near 6.70 per dollar, reaching its highest levels since early 2023. A substantial trade surplus and robust export growth continue to provide powerful fundamental support for the currency despite a challenging external backdrop. Export growth accelerated to 25.0% y/y ($401.44 bn) and imports to 28.2% y/y ($282.4 bn) in August, delivering a record trade surplus of $119.09 bn. Double‑digit growth rates have now persisted for eight consecutive months, confirming strong external demand for Chinese goods.

Australia’s corporate sentiment continues to deteriorate rapidly. The NAB Business Confidence Index fell to 8 points in August (from -6 previously), hitting a four‑month low, while overall business conditions plunged to a six‑year low, decisively below long‑term averages. Rising business pessimism and cooling investment activity pose a serious challenge for monetary authorities. Nevertheless, persistent inflationary pressure forces the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain a highly cautious stance.

• S&P 500 (US500) 7,718.60 0 (0%)

• Dow Jones (US30) 53,414.25 0 (0%)

• DAX (DE40) 26,006.53 -39.87 (-0.15%)

• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,822.13 -0.08 (-8.96%)

• USD Index 98.93 -0.25 (-0.25%)

News feed for: 2026.09.08

• Japan Average Cash Earnings (y/y) at 02:30 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3) – JPY (MED)

• China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• Germany Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)