Oil Prices Have Once Again Approached The $95‑Per‑Barrel Mark

On Tuesday, the US stock indices closed lower, driven by a decline in semiconductor and technology giants. By the end of the day on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.02%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.02%. The Technology Index Nasdaq (US100) closed Tuesday in the red at 0.31%. Pressure on the sectors came from news about a new memory architecture from China’s CXMT, as well as warnings from Broadcom’s CEO about risks of low returns from excessive AI investments, which led to a sharp drop in shares of Micron, SanDisk, Lam Research, and Applied Materials.

European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.07%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.39%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the trading session lower by 0.06%. The main pressure factor was the decline in technology and industrial stocks, particularly ASML, which lost 4.2% amid reports of a technological breakthrough by China’s CXMT in memory architecture.

WTI oil prices recovered from their decline and approached $95 per barrel due to concerns about supply stability. The escalation of conflict with Iran‑backed Houthis, who intensified strikes on infrastructure and airports in Saudi Arabia (including Riyadh), along with increased defense measures and mobilization within Iran amid the risk of possible US actions after the elections, is creating serious tension in the market. A restraining factor for price growth was the prospect of a six‑month agreement on supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the US and other countries. However, Goldman Sachs analysts doubt that additional volumes of energy products from Russia will significantly ease global pressure on fuel commodities.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose above $3.20 per million BTU, reaching their highest level since late September amid declining production. Average daily output in October fell due to shutdowns caused by Hurricane Isaiah and pipeline disruptions, with daily production dropping to an eight‑month low. Average LNG export volumes also decreased.

In Asia on Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.82%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed lower by 0.24%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.30%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed slightly higher yesterday by 0.01%.

According to the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook 2026, the expectation for global economic growth in 2026 was raised by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1%, and growth is expected to accelerate to 3.4% in 2027. The resilience of developed economies and investments in AI support global growth, but the overall pace is slowing compared to 3.5% in 2025 due to high energy prices amid the US-Iran military conflict, which creates risks for commodity‑importing countries. Growth predictions for the US stand at 2.3% for 2026-2027, Japan at 0.7%, and India at 7.0%, while China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027 due to weak demand. The European region shows more restrained figures amid energy pressure and low consumer confidence: Eurozone growth will reach 1.1% this year with a slight recovery to 1.2% in 2027. Meanwhile, the UK’s growth outlook for 2026 was raised to 1.3%.

The offshore yuan (CNY) strengthened around 6.69 per dollar, approaching its highest levels since July 2022 amid strong external demand. The currency was supported by record trade figures: China’s trade surplus in September 2026 rose to $133.53 billion, with annual export growth of 36.3% and import growth of 31.0%. Over the first nine months, the country’s trade surplus reached $938 billion, bringing it close to the $1 trillion mark for the year. Economic statistics also recorded rising inflation indicators: consumer inflation in September increased to 0.9%, and producer price inflation accelerated to 5.0%, showing the fastest pace since June 2022.

The Australian dollar (AUD) strengthened slightly, approaching $0.70 and reaching a two‑week high. The currency was supported by a weaker US dollar amid Federal Reserve signals of only one planned rate hike this year and no tightening expected in 2027. An additional growth factor was the “hawkish” rhetoric and minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which pointed to risks of inflation remaining above the 2-3% target and allowed for the possibility of further rate increases. Investors are awaiting labor market data, where job growth of 20,000 and unemployment at 4.6% are expected, as well as the Q3 inflation report, which will help assess the likelihood of an RBA rate hike at upcoming meetings.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened slightly to $0.562, continuing its rebound from a 17‑month low amid a pause in US dollar appreciation. Despite the local recovery, the New Zealand dollar remains under pressure from domestic economic weakness, pre‑election political uncertainty, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s lagging interest rates compared to other global regulators. Although the RBNZ raised rates twice this year, they remain lower than most foreign counterparts, reducing the investment appeal of the national currency.

• S&P 500 (US500) 7,805.45 -1.79 (-0.02%)

• Dow Jones (US30) 51,670.10 -180.45 (-0.35%)

• DAX (DE40) 25,259.90 -17.78 (-0.07%)

• FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,650.33 -5.95 (-0.06%)

• USD Index 102.21 -0.38 (-0.37%)

News feed for: 2026.10.14

• China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 05:10 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)

• UK BOE Gov Bailey Speech at 08:30 (GMT+3) – GBP (LOW)

• Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)

• Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 11:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (LOW)

• US Consumer Price Index at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD, XAU, US indices (HIGH)