S&P Trades Tight Handle With Excellent Risk:Reward For Longs

The S&P 500 shows a bullish tight handle setup, offering excellent risk:reward for long positions with a 10,000 target.

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Bullish setups continue to present themselves for traders. Best of these look to be in the S&P (SPY), but there are good setups all around. The S&P is trading a narrow handle just above its initial breakout. Technicals are net bullish and showing no sign of negative divergence. Volume has been declining across this narrow pattern, as expected, but should pick up on the breakout. If there is a caveat, watch for the fakeout; this will show as a spike low - possibly as soon as tomorrow - with a close back in the range. The index should break higher the day after this happens. A fakeout spike would be an nice buy. Any fakeout shouldn't need to undercut 7,600.

The equal-weighted S&P (RSP) is already signalling a move higher, small though today's move was. This is a good omen for the S&P and is a safe hold. Looking for target of 10K.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) is knocking around $301 resistance, also in a tight range, and ready to break higher. Technicals are a little more mixed in that On-Balance-Volume is trading lower, but is close to a new 'buy' trigger. It's perhaps the best positioned of the indices to go higher but $300 resistance is still in play.

The Nasdaq (QQQ) is pushing up against resitance in what is also looking like a pending breakout. The only downside is that 27K is still resistance, and there is a 'sell' in On-Balance-Volume.

The only disappointment was Bitcoin (BTC.X). While I continue to rate it a strong long term buy, the near term trade has failed to lift off. It remains bound by the 20-day MA and 65,535 resistance, and at today's closing price is an aggressive buy, but this may yet drift lower before it can mount a challenge on its 200-day MA. Technicals are mixed, with the MACD generating a new 'sell' signal.

For tomorrow, look to lead indices to break near-term resistance that has lasted the past 5 days. These are offering good risk:reward at today's close (assuming a fill at a similar price at the open) and may yet evolve into something bigger.

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