SoundHound Q3 Preview: Consensus Still Leaves Out LivePerson

While sales may surge 23% above consensus, updated 2027 guidance remains the critical catalyst.

Unsplash

SoundHound AI (SOUN) reports Q3 2026 results on Thursday, November 5, after the close. The stock goes in at $4.36, down 56% this year, even though Q2 was the largest quarter in the company's history and management raised its full-year revenue guide to $230 million to $260 million.

The quarter has one feature the published consensus has not caught up with. SoundHound closed its acquisition of LivePerson (LPSN) on September 4, so Q3 includes 27 days of a business that booked $52.5 million of revenue in Q2 on its own. The six-analyst consensus of $62.2 million for Q3, and $237.7 million for the full year, sits inside SoundHound's pre-deal guidance, which management said “does not include the acquisition”.

Our Q3 build

  • SoundHound before the deal: about $62.0 million. Q2 was $61.9 million, of which $47.0 million was service subscriptions and $14.8 million product royalties, up from $8.4 million of royalties in Q1. We hold subscriptions near $48.0 million and let royalties ease to $14.0 million. Q3 2025 revenue was 1.5% below Q2 2025, so a flat third quarter is the company's own pattern.

  • LivePerson for 27 days: about $14.2 million. LivePerson's revenue fell from $57.0 million in Q1 to $52.5 million in Q2, down 7.8%. Repeating that decline gives a full Q3 of $48.4 million, and 27 of 92 days gives $14.2 million.

  • Reported revenue: about $76.2 million, 23% above consensus on paper, almost all of it acquisition. Like for like, the core business is in line.

For Q4 we forecast $120.0 million: $74.0 million from SoundHound alone and a full quarter of LivePerson at about $46.0 million, against a $70.9 million consensus.

The 2027 range is the real test

In May, before the deal closed, management gave $350 million to $400 million as the “achievable revenue range” for 2027, including LivePerson, and called it a minimum in August. Our count of the combined business in 2026 is about $446 million: $242 million from SoundHound alone and about $204 million from LivePerson for the full year. Taken at face value, the range implies combined revenue falls 10% to 22% next year. The analyst consensus for 2027 is $390.2 million. November 5 is the first chance for combined guidance, and that number matters more than the Q3 beat.

Balance sheet and positioning

  • The deal added about 42.6 million shares, close to 10% more stock: about 5.7 million to LivePerson shareholders at 0.4673 SoundHound shares each, and 36.9 million to LivePerson's secured noteholders, whose notes were retired. The combined company has no borrowings.

  • SoundHound had $202.8 million of cash at June 30 and an unused $300 million at-the-market program.

  • 170.8 million shares were sold short at the October 15 settlement, about 36% of the post-deal share count, with 10.1 days to cover.

  • Weekly options expiring November 6 price a move of about 13% either way.

  • Insiders have made no open-market purchases since January 2023.

What to watch

  • Revenue from SoundHound before the deal, if the company splits it out.

  • LivePerson's contribution and customer retention since closing.

  • An updated 2026 range including LivePerson, and whether the 2027 range is raised.

  • Gross margin, 45.1% GAAP in Q2, and ATM sales in Q3.

The full preview, with the revenue bridge, scenarios, margin model and sources, is on Equibles: SoundHound AI (SOUN) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.

Disclosure:

Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed. This is our analysis of public filings and market data, not investment advice.

STOCKS IN THIS ARTICLE

Comments