Friday's selling looked worse than it did given the sequence of narrow trade days, but it did rank as selling, and in the case of the Russell 2000 (IWM), registered as distribution.
Technicals for the Russell 2000 included a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and an acceleration in bearish ADX (+DI/-DI) metrics. Because of the earlier 'bear trap,' it's now considered range-bound and is now on course for a test of $287.
The equal-weighted S&P eased back to its 20-day MA while remaining in a bullish trend. It will probably morph into a trading range, but it will take a high degree of selling to get there. Technicals are mostly bullish with only a 'weak' MACD sell to navigate.
The weighted S&P maintained its breakout on a weak candlestick. It could tolerate a few more days of selling, but dropping below 7,600 would leave it open to a larger retracement back to 7,235. There is a weak MACD trigger 'sell' to navigate, but there are support levels to work with.
The Nasdaq has been range-bound for a while, and Friday's action didn't change that. Friday's volume ranked as distribution, but that's just noise in the context of the range.
Financial Markets News
Bitcoin (BTC.X) didn't move sharply lower. I expect it will come, but is likely to be a fake-out to shake out weak-hand bulls. Certainly there has been a sharp move in favor of bulls, and May highs are playing as resistance.
Exchange Traded Funds
Semiconductors (SOX) had rebounded to its 50-day MA, before reversing back towards its 200-day MA. The 61.8% retracement is near 10K and the fast approaching 200-day MA - making it a likely test.
Investing
For next week, watch for a sharp intraday reversal, likely after an early morning sell-off. Markets are set up for a larger bullish move higher, but a good shakeout would be a large help.
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