September Fed Hike Drops To 38% From 50% After Colossal Payroll Miss

This morning’s colossal miss on nonfarm payrolls resulted in a significant drop in Fed hike odds for the central bank’s next meeting. Participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets had placed the likelihood of a September increase at a coin-flip heading into this morning, but the ice-cold headline figure, which showed a decline of 23k workers, dropped the probability to 38% in volatile trading. Now, the beginning of a fresh tightening cycle is poised to start in either October or December, as the rate setting committee partially turns its focus from inflation to employment because payroll losses are a serious risk to the economic expansion. Still, US and Iran negotiations will be top of mind for investors and policymakers alike because oil prices are crucial to where cost pressures go from here.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 7, 2026.