Sellers Push Range Bound Markets As Bitcoin Heads For Retest

Nasty set of red candlesticks painted the market, but most of these occurred within the context of trading ranges. It will be a question of balance as Materials and Staples make gains, as Technology suffers. Bitcoin has been on to a hiding, but the retest of the capitulation is coming on modest action and lower volume - the kind of trading you want to see for a tradeable bottom.

The Russell 2000 (IWM) took a 2% hit on higher volume distribution, with the 50-day MA coming into range as a support test. A bullish play would be for a tag of $255 support followed by an end-of-day close above the 50-day MA. Technicals show 'sell' triggers for MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Things only get bearish if $255 support is lost.

More of a worry is the equal weighted S&P; early gains were quickly reversed, leaving a nasty spike that has a toppy look to it. Technicals are still positive and the 20-day MA has playes as support swing the swing low in November. I think a test of the 50-day MA is probably due here, and that might be the buying opportunity.

The S&P traversed the breadth of its trading range as it undercut both 20-day and 50-day MAs, and leaving it on course for a test of 6,800. Volume rose in distribution, and MACD, On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI are bearish. Tomorrow could be a big day for markets.

The Nasdaq failed in its retest of former ascending triangle support - turned resistance. It's now heading for a test of $22.2K trading range support, with net bearish technicals; a loss of this support test opens up for much worse because there is little positive on offer here.

While the equal weighted Nasdaq 100 played to a picture-perfect short on the loss-and-retest of channel support resistance. A loss of $130.70 would open up for a measured move lower with a target of $120.

The trade of the day could be Bitcoin. This has nearly halved in value since its 2025 peak, but since the start of February capitulation it has drifted back towards a retest on lower volume. I'm looking for a smaller spike low (I have stuck a GTC order at 63,310) to mark the bottom (or an equivalent bullish reversal candlestick).