Scary And Scarier: CFNAI

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for April (May comes on June 24th):

First the scary:

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Then the scarier:

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The 3-month moving average for production and income component of the CFNAI is now at 2016 levels. Of course, 2016 did not coincide with a recession. But the term spread was solidly upward sloping then, and most NBER BCDC key indicators were rising.