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Market Analysis:
The USDA’s next US & World supply/demand & S. American crop updates will be on March 8. The World Board usually makes minimal changes in their US & World estimates this month. They prefer to see important US quarterly stocks & processing reports before making big domestic adjustments. However, this year’s erratic Brazilian growing season which has experienced dryness that delayed seeding, prompted replanting & even switched producers’ plantings (corn to cotton) suggests further bean & corn crop declines. The trade remains optimistic about Argentina’s 2024 crop prospects because of timely weather. However, a nasty heat stretch reportedly sliced 100,000 hectares of soybean area suggesting no change in Argentina’s crops this month.
Ongoing 8-15% lower bean yield reports in the Center-West region have us expecting a 5 mmt decline in Brazil’s 2024 bean crop to 151 mmt vs the trade’s 152.3 mmt average estimate. After 4 monthly crushing records, January’s 194.8 million bu pace just missed another one by 1.7 million. Strong competition from Brazil as their harvest is near- ing 50% has slipped US export sales the past few weeks.
However, beans overseas demand maybe left unchanged to see the impact of a smaller Brazilian crop. Overall, the US soybean stocks maybe unchanged at 315 million bu.
Brazil’s corn output has also been impacted by this year’s erratic weather. After a 3 mmt decline last month, Brazil’s could drop another 4 mmt to 120 mmt because of late 1st crop plantings and switches to other crops on their 2nd crop plantings. 20-25% of Brazil’s 2 crop corn will be planted after its March 1 preferred date making it vulnerable to late season stress. Despite January’s cold snap cutting etha- nol’s corn usage by 50 million bu, this domestic demand is 115 million bu stronger than last year. Seasonally, exports are 250 million bu higher than last year. Overall, no chang- es in corn’s balance sheet are expected.
US wheat export shipments are a bit slow, but seasonally, export sales at on target. No US stock change is expected. The Black Sea & India will be the wheat’s focus this spring.
What’s Ahead:
S America & the USDA’s March World crop & Supply/Demand reports will be the near-term price factors. Use May soybeans & corn prices in the $12.10-.35 & $4.45-52 ranges to have 65% and 55% of your old-crop priced. Also, begin your 2024 corn & soybean sales at 15% in the $4.70-$4.80 and $11.85-11.95 new-crop ranges. Also, up your May KC wheat marketing to 65% in the $6.10-25 range.
More By This Author:
Despite Small Crop Changes, S. America’s Weather Is The Focus
South America’s Crop Updates Are The Market’s Focus
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