In this Elliott Wave update, we examine the long-term structure in the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RSPG). The ETF continues to display a strong impulsive structure from the March 2020 low, while the April 2025 low created another important bullish nest within that larger cycle.
More recently, $RSPG completed another 5-wave advance and has started a corrective pullback. Once that correction runs its course, the nested Elliott Wave structure should support another strong leg higher, with $130+ becoming the next major upside objective.
$RSPG Started a New Bullish Cycle From March 2020
Looking at the weekly chart, $RSPG established a major low in March 2020 and began a new long-term bullish cycle.
The advance from that low developed impulsively rather than as a corrective bounce. A sequence of higher highs and higher lows formed through multiple degrees of Elliott Wave structure, confirming that buyers remained in control of the larger trend.
This impulsive behavior is important because it suggests the rally from 2020 represents part of a larger bullish cycle rather than simply a temporary recovery.
March 2020 Low Created the First Major Nest
From the March 2020 low, $RSPG completed an initial wave ((1)) advance before pulling back in wave ((2)).
The ETF then resumed higher and continued to build additional impulsive waves. This wave 1–2 structure created the first important bullish nest within the larger sequence.
From there, price accelerated substantially higher as the nested third-wave structure unfolded.
April 2025 Low Created the Second Nest
The next major development came during the correction into April 2025.
$RSPG declined in an A-B-C corrective structure and completed another important wave II low. Rather than damaging the larger bullish trend, this correction created another wave 1–2 relationship at a higher degree.
Therefore, the March 2020 and April 2025 lows now form a double-nest structure.
This setup is significant because nested 1–2 formations often precede some of the strongest portions of an Elliott Wave advance. Once the smaller-degree corrections finish, several third waves can begin unfolding together and create stronger upside momentum.
Five Waves Up From April 2025 Are Complete
Following the April 2025 low, $RSPG turned sharply higher and developed another clear 5-wave impulsive sequence.
Waves (1) through (5) pushed the ETF toward the recent high near the $120 area and completed wave ((1)).
As a result, a correction against that rally is now due. The preferred Elliott Wave path calls for the current decline to develop as an A-B-C correction in wave ((2)) before buyers return.
Importantly, this pullback should be viewed within the context of the larger bullish double nest rather than as the start of a new bearish trend.
Wave ((2)) Pullback Should Set Up the Next Rally
The current correction can continue to develop in three swings.
Wave (A) represents the first move lower, followed by a corrective bounce in wave (B). Afterward, another decline in wave (C) can complete wave ((2)).
Once that structure finishes, $RSPG should be positioned to start the next impulsive advance.
This is where the double nest becomes particularly important. A completed wave ((2)) would leave several bullish degrees aligned to the upside, creating the conditions for stronger acceleration.
$130+ Becomes the Next Major Objective
After the current correction finishes, the next bullish cycle should take $RSPG back toward the recent high and eventually beyond it.
The weekly chart supports an advance toward $130+ as the next meaningful upside objective.
A break above the previous high would confirm that the next impulsive sequence is underway and strengthen the case for continued upside beyond $130 over time.
Therefore, short-term weakness should primarily be viewed as a corrective reset before the larger bullish trend resumes.
Bigger Picture Remains Bullish
The larger Elliott Wave structure remains constructive.
$RSPG has developed an impulsive advance from the March 2020 low, followed by another important nested structure from the April 2025 low. More recently, another five-wave rally has reinforced the bullish character of the sequence.
Consequently, once the current wave ((2)) correction completes, the next leg higher should have room to accelerate.
The long-term bullish structure remains valid above the 15.91 invalidation level, keeping the broader right side pointed higher.
Technical Summary
To summarize, $RSPG continues to display an impulsive bullish structure from the March 2020 low.
The March 2020 cycle established the first major bullish nest, while the April 2025 low created another wave II correction and completed the second nest.
From April 2025, $RSPG rallied in another 5-wave impulse, which now appears complete in wave ((1)). The ETF is currently expected to correct that advance in wave ((2)).
Once this pullback finishes, the double-nest structure should support another strong bullish leg, with $RSPG expected to challenge its previous high and extend toward $130+ in the next phase of the advance.
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