Rocket Lab (RKLB) reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the close. Since the last report, it sold $1.94B of new shares to pay for its pending Iridium acquisition and pushed Neutron's first launch into 2027.
Launch revenue follows the launch count. Electron orbital launches are booked on the day of launch, while HASTE suborbital launches for defense customers are booked over time. That is why launch revenue fell to $44.6M in Q2 from $63.7M in Q1 despite six launches in each quarter: two of Q2's six were HASTE flights. In Q3, Electron flew six orbital missions and no HASTE flight, so all six land in Q3 revenue at full value.
Building the quarter gives about $260.3M, in the top half of the $250M to $265M guide and slightly above the $257.2M consensus from 16 analysts:
Launch Services of about $59.8M: six launches at $8.8M each plus $7.0M of overtime HASTE revenue.
Space Systems of about $200.5M, up from $189.5M, with the first full quarter of Mynaric and Motiv and a continued ramp in satellite manufacturing.
The backlog supports it. At June 30, backlog stood at $2,355.9M, and the CFO expects about 45.5% of it to turn into revenue within 12 months, about $268M a quarter before new orders.
The catch is margin and share count. GAAP gross margin climbed to 38.2% in Q1 2026 and slipped to 36.1% in Q2; the Q3 guide of 29% to 31% undoes most of that climb, which the CFO tied to a mix shift toward lower-margin satellite platforms. Consensus EPS of -$0.066 needs a gross margin of about 32.3% on our revenue, above the top of the guide. And the 29.3M shares sold between August 13 and September 15 add about 10M to the weighted count, so we see a loss of about $0.073 a share.
What to watch on the call: the Neutron date for 2027, the Iridium timeline (expected to close in mid-2027), and whether Q4 margins recover. Short interest was 45.3M shares at the October 15 settlement, and the stock has moved 8.0% on average the session after its last seven reports.
The full preview, with the launch-by-launch build, the margin table, and the balance sheet, is here: Rocket Lab (RKLB) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast.
Data: SEC filings, earnings calls, and company releases, processed by Equibles. Consensus as of October 20.
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