Rigetti Computing (RGTI) reports Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, November 10, after the close, with the call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. The stock closed at $10.67 on November 2, its lowest close in a year and 73% below its 52-week high of $39.12.
The first half looked like a turning point, with revenue of $4.4M in Q1 and $5.1M in Q2 after under $2M a quarter through 2025. Nearly all of that growth came from two 9-qubit Novera systems. Rigetti had said three systems would ship in 2026: those two and a 108-qubit machine for C-DAC in India, an $8.4M order booked for the fourth quarter. That leaves Q3 with no planned system delivery.
Our call: Q3 revenue of $1.8M, below the $3.68M consensus (12 analysts, October 5 snapshot, range $1.59M to $6.38M).
Why revenue drops
Rigetti reports three revenue lines. Quantum computers and components brought in $3.05M in Q1 and $4.10M in Q2. Research and services brought in $1.30M and $0.95M, and cloud access $0.06M and $0.09M. In Q2 one customer was 64% of revenue, $3.3M, about the size of one Novera.
Rigetti has won more Novera orders since then: the University of Saskatchewan, the research arm of a large Japanese conglomerate, and a system for the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center's testbed with HPE. None has been announced as delivered. Without one, the hardware line falls back to parts. We model $0.8M of hardware, $0.9M of research and $0.1M of cloud access, close to what Rigetti earned in every quarter of 2025.
The upside case is one new Novera delivered in the quarter, which adds about $2.8M and takes revenue to about $4.6M, a beat. The downside case is $1.3M, if parts sales stop as well.
Q4 rests on one acceptance test
We forecast Q4 revenue of $10.2M, in line with the $10.02M consensus: the C-DAC system plus the same $1.8M base. The CFO said the order will be recognized "following installation and performance acceptance testing". A slip into January would leave Q4 near $1.8M and the full year near $13M, against a $23.26M consensus.
The 10-Q puts remaining performance obligations at about $2.7M on June 30. That is smaller than the C-DAC order alone and smaller than the $4.0M of deferred revenue, and the filing doesn't reconcile the three figures. It is worth asking about on the call.
The Commerce Department stake
On September 8 Rigetti issued the US Department of Commerce 7,739,938 shares at an implied $12.92 each, alongside a CHIPS Act research award of up to $100M, $43.9M of it available at signing. Two further tranches depend on milestones the Department judges "in its sole discretion". The award is research funding, not revenue, so how Rigetti books it will change how Q3's expenses read.
Positioning
Short interest reached 71.0M shares on October 15, about 21% of shares outstanding, the highest in the six reports since July. On November 2, options priced a move of about 12.5% either way by November 13, the first expiry after the report.
What to watch on the call
Any delivery date for the Novera orders, the timing of C-DAC's acceptance, how the Commerce award is accounted for, and what remains contracted beyond C-DAC.
The full Rigetti preview has the revenue build, the margin table, and the charts.
Data: Rigetti SEC filings, earnings call transcripts, FINRA short interest, options data, and analyst consensus, processed by Equibles.
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