Quarterly GDP Forecast And Economic Releases For The Weeks Of July 11 And 18

Quarterly Forecasts(percent)
	Q216	Q316	Q416	Q117	Q217	Q317	2015	2016	2017
GDP: Annual	2.6	2.8	2.4	1.4	2.6	2.5	2.4	2.0	2.3
GDP: Q4/Q4							2.0	2.2	2.2
CPI: Year/Year	1.2	1.6	2.1	2.4	2.4	2.3	0.1	1.5	2.3
Core CPI: Y/Y	2.2	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.4	1.8	2.3	2.3
Unemployment Rate	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.7	4.7	4.6	5.3	4.9	4.6
Fed Funds: End Qtr	0.375	0.375	0.625	0.625	0.875	0.875	0.375	0.625	1.125

Forecasts for Upcoming Economic Releases
`	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus Forecast
Week of July 11
July 12
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June	93.8	93.8	94.0
JOLTS - May	5.65M	5.788	5.70

Wholesale Inventories - May	0.2%	0.6	0.2

July 13
Export Prices - June	0.3%	1.1	0.3
Import Prices	0.6	1.4	0.5

Treasury Budget - June	$23.0B	-52.5	19.0

July 14
Initial Unemployment Claims	265K	254	265

Producer Producer Index - June	0.3%	0.4	0.3
Core PPI	0.2	0.3	0.2

July 15
Consumer Price Index - June	0.3%	0.2	0.3
Core CPI	0.2	0.2	0.2

Retail Sales - June	0.1%	0.5	0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.4	0.4	0.5

NY Fed Manufacturing Index	5.0	6.01	5.0

Industrial Production - June	0.2%	-0.4	0.4
Capacity Utilization	75.0	74.9	75.0
Manufacturing	0.2	-0.4	0.3

Business Inventories - May	0.1%	0.1	0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)	93.5	93.5	93.5

Week of July 18
July 18
NAHB Index - July	59	60

July 19
Housing Starts - June	1.170M	1.164
Building Permits	1.150	1.138

July 21
Initial Unemployment Claims
Philadelphia Fed Survey	5.0	4.7
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June	-0.20	-0.51
FHFA Home Price Index - May	0.6%	0.2
Existing Home Sales - June	5.400M	5.530
Leading Indicators	0.2%	-0.2

July 22
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	50.8	51.3