Quarterly Forecasts And Releases The Weeks Of December 5 And 12

December 3, 2016

Quarterly Forecasts (percent)

Q316

Q416

Q117

Q217

Q317

Q417

2015

2016

2017

2018

GDP: Annual

3.2

2.1

1.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.6

1.6

2.3

2.3

GDP: Q4/Q4

1.9

1.9

2.3

2.3

CPI: Year/Year

1.1

1.7

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

0.1

1.3

2.3

2.2

Core CPI: Y/Y

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.9

Unemployment Rate

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.6

5.3

4.9

4.7

4.6

Fed Funds: End Qtr

0.375

0.625

0.625

0.875

0.875

0.375

0.625

1.125

1.625

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 5

December 5

ISM Services - November

55.3

54.8

55.5

December 6

International Trade - October

-$43.0B

-36.4

-42.0

Productivity - Q3 (r)

3.3%

3.1

3.3

Unit Labor Costs

0.1

0.3

0.3

Factory Orders - October

2.6%

0.3

2.7

December 7

Consumer Credit - October

$19.0B

19.3

19.0

December 8

Initial Unemployment Claims

255K

268

255

December 9

Wholesale Inventories - October

-0.3%

0.1

-0.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p)

94.2

93.8

94.1

Week of December 12

December 12

Treasury Budget - November

-$115.0B

-44.2

December 13

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index -November

97.0

94.9

Export Prices -  November

-0.3%

0.2

Import Prices

-0.5

0.5

December 14

Producer Price Index - November

0.1%

0.0

PPI Core

0.2

-0.1

Retail Sales - November

0.6%

0.8

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.8

Industrial Production - November

0.1%

0.0

Capacity Utilization

75.3

75.3

Business Inventories - October

-0.2%

0.1