Q4 2025 U.S. Retail Scorecard – Update

To date, 112 of the 190 companies in our Retail/Restaurant Index have reported their EPS results for Q4 2025, representing 59% of the index. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results, 61% announced profits that beat analysts’ expectations, while 7% delivered on-target results and 32% reported earnings that fell below estimates. The Q4 2025 blended earnings growth estimate now stands at 1.9%.

The blended revenue growth estimate for the 190 companies in this index is 5.0% for Q4 2025. Of those companies that have reported their quarterly results so far, 70% announced revenue that exceeded analysts’ expectations and the remaining 30 reported that their revenue fell below analysts’ forecasts.

Exhibit 1: LSEG Earnings Dashboard

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S

This week in retail

Walmart (WMT) delivered a strong holiday quarter, outperforming expectations across earnings, revenue, and same-store sales for Q4 2025. Comparable sales rose 4.6% in the U.S. and 4.0% at Sam’s Club, excluding fuel, reflecting solid consumer demand versus the prior-year period.

Despite the robust quarter, full-year guidance came in more conservative than anticipated, signaling a cautious outlook amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Walmart’s omnichannel strategy remains a key growth driver. E-commerce sales continued to accelerate, rising 24% globally and 27% in the U.S., fueled by strong adoption of pickup and delivery services particularly among higher-income households. The company’s global advertising business expanded 37%, while membership revenue grew 15.1%, highlighting continued momentum among digitally engaged, higher-income consumers.

Overall, Walmart strengthened its position as a one-stop destination for value-focused shoppers, offering everyday low prices at a time when consumers remain sensitive to inflation.

Looking ahead, analysts surveyed by LSEG maintain a positive outlook for Dillard’s (DDS) Q4 results, which are expected later next week. For Dillard’s, the current consensus for Q4 2025 EPS stands at $10.61. However, a five-star rated analyst with a strong track record has issued an estimate, well above consensus. Additionally, the StarMine Predicted Surprise exceeds 2%, signaling a high probability that Dillard’s will deliver an earnings beat and a positive surprise.

Here are the latest Q4 2025 earnings and same store sales retail estimates:

Exhibit 2: Same Store Sales and Earnings Estimates – Q4 2025

Source: LSEG I/B/E/S